While SOL’s RSI value at the 42.66 level shows neutral-bearish momentum, the MACD histogram is expanding in the negative region, confirming the downtrend; the price remaining below the short-term EMA20 indicates weak trend strength.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
Solana (SOL) is trading at 129.03 dollars as of January 23, 2026, and has experienced a -0.97% decline in the last 24 hours. The daily range was between 126.73-130.94 dollars, while volume remained at a notable level of 2.87 billion dollars. From a momentum perspective, the overall trend direction is confirmed as downtrend; the price is trading below EMA20 (134.45 dollars) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with the resistance level set at 145.98 dollars. This configuration shows that short-term momentum is weak and buyers have not yet gained dominance. The high volume level supports a distribution pattern confirming the decline, as volume increase is observed at lower price levels. Multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence detects a total of 13 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/4 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. This emphasizes that the medium-term trend is under pressure and requires additional momentum for a breakout. Overall, momentum oscillators reinforce the bearish bias, while a volume-supported RSI bounce should be awaited for a potential recovery. Given the market’s volatile nature, detailed data can be accessed from the SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis pages.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
The RSI (14) value is currently positioned at 42.66; this reflects mildly bearish momentum in the neutral zone and, although it has not yet entered the oversold region (below 30), signals that the downtrend could deepen. A regular bearish divergence is observed on the daily chart: while the price makes new lows, the RSI does not form higher lows, confirming that sellers’ strength has not diminished. From a hidden divergence perspective, there is no bullish signal on the short-term 4-hour chart; since the RSI has declined along with the price drop, trend continuation is likely. The weekly RSI is stuck around 45, where for a potential bullish divergence formation, the price needs to approach the 126.85 support level with volume increase. Divergence analysis shows that momentum is not yet ready for reversal; the regular bearish divergence highlights the potential continuation of selling pressure.
Oversold/Overbought Regions
RSI at 42.66 is far from overbought regions (above 70), but continues to stay below the 50 level, confirming downtrend momentum. Even if short-term bounce potential increases in the approaching oversold zone (30-40 range), the current 42.66 level should be interpreted as ‘weak momentum.’ In previous days, when RSI declined from 55 to 42 without volume support, it indicated weak sustainable recovery. The critical threshold to watch is 35; a drop to this level confirmed by volume would increase deep decline risk.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
The MACD indicator is in a bearish configuration; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is expanding in the negative region. This expansion shows that momentum is gaining speed in the selling direction – histogram bars have grown in the last 24 hours, strengthening the downtrend. The signal line crossover was last bearish and confirmed by the price dropping below EMA20. As the histogram’s negative depth increases, there is no sign of approaching the zero line; this confirms the strength of the short-term sell signal. Although the MACD histogram on the 4-hour chart has started to contract, expansion dominates on the daily – thus, for reversal, the histogram must reset and a bullish crossover is required. The negative histogram supported by volume indicates a distribution phase, and rejection at the 135.66 resistance could continue bearish momentum.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
The short-term EMA20 (134.45 dollars) is forming resistance above the price; SOL remaining below this level at 129.03 confirms the bearish short-term trend. The narrowing between EMA10 and EMA50 ribbon shows momentum loss – the ribbon flattening indicates declining trend strength. Selling pressure has increased with rejection from EMA20, and the downtrend continues with volume confirmation.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 (around 140 dollars) and EMA200 (150+ dollars) levels are strong resistances; ribbon dynamics are squeezed in the downtrend, with no bullish expansion. Although a drop below the long-term EMA200 has not yet occurred, the current momentum could test medium-term support. In trend strength measurement, the downward-sloping EMA ribbon reflects weak buyers – for recovery, a ribbon twist (short EMAs crossing above longs) is necessary.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is showing a slight 0.03% rise at 90,019.99 dollars, but the overall trend is downtrend with Supertrend bearish; supports at 89,160-86,739-84,681 dollars, resistances at 90,245-92,308-94,276 dollars. As a highly correlated altcoin with BTC, SOL is directly affected by BTC’s downtrend – an increase in BTC dominance could trigger altcoin selling. If BTC breaks the 89,160 support, pressure on SOL below 126.85 increases; conversely, if BTC surpasses 92,308, SOL momentum could revive. Due to the current BTC bearish supertrend, a cautious approach is necessary for SOL, with correlation coefficient at 0.85+ levels.
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
In the confluence of momentum oscillators, RSI at 42.66 is neutral-bearish, MACD with negative histogram expansion is sell-focused, and EMA ribbon narrowing weakens trend strength. Volume at 2.87 billion dollars confirms the decline, while MTF levels (supports 126.85 score 80/100, 116.88 score 68/100; resistances 135.66 score 74/100) are critical. Bullish target 171.54 (low score 31) is distant, while bearish 92.82 (score 22) appears more likely. Overall outlook: Downtrend continuation is probable; if 126.85 support breaks, momentum deepens; for reversal, RSI>50, MACD bullish cross, and BTC recovery are necessary. Momentum traders should monitor volume-confirmed levels.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/sol-rsi-macd-analysis-january-23-2026-momentum-evaluation
