Scott Melker Sees Bitcoin Upside Despite Growing Caution in Price Forecasts

Analysts avoid firm Bitcoin price targets after past misses, but Melker still expects new highs despite current market weakness.

Bitcoin price forecasts have grown quieter, but optimism has not disappeared. According to Scott Melker, the change reflects caution rather than a bearish turn. After years of bold targets that failed to materialize, analysts now prefer careful language over firm numbers. The host of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Scott Melker, says that restraint has replaced confidence, even as long-term belief in Bitcoin remains intact.

Crypto Market Outlooks Grow Careful After Failed Bitcoin Predictions

Melker believes the biggest shift in crypto outlooks is not negativity but the loss of conviction. Speaking on recent market commentary, the crypto commentator said the industry learned a hard lesson after aggressive price calls proved wrong.

In past cycles, experts made bold Bitcoin forecasts ranging from $150,000 to $200,000 and even $300,000. Among them were firms such as Bitwise, VanEck, Galaxy, and Bernstein. Even analysts like Arthur Hayes and Peter Brandt were vocal about the OG coin’s price movement. Yet, none of these predictions played out.

Still, most outlooks regarding Bitcoin sound similar. Analysts point to steady ETF growth, weakening four-year cycles, and the chance of new highs. Language has shifted toward “could” and “likely,” with few analysts willing to commit to exact figures. According to Melker, price targets that once attracted attention now carry reputational risk.

BTC Struggles as Tariff Concerns and Global Tensions Hit Markets

Recent market moves help explain the softer tone. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $394.68 million in net outflows last Friday, ending four straight days of inflows that totaled more than $1.8 billion. Most of the outflows came from Fidelity’s FBTC fund.

Even so, the asset’s price action remains weak. Bitcoin dropped to $90,710 from a recent high of $95,420, a decline of about 3.8%.

In the past year, the OG coin has dropped by about 15%. In fact, the coin’s performance trails 95% of the top 100 crypto assets. On top of that, the coin trades below the 200-day moving average and has posted only 14 green days in the last month.

Crypto commentators have highlighted the current geopolitical tensions as a major driver of this drop. Another factor being spotlighted is the new 10% U.S. tariff on Europe by President Trump. 

Melker Expects Bitcoin Breakout Despite Fewer Firm Price Forecasts

Even as Bitcoin struggles to regain its market footing, some firms still publish clear price targets. Galaxy and CoinShares remain constructive with upside calls, while Standard Chartered now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026. Still, that figure marks a sharp cut from its earlier $300,000 forecast.

Melker says such revisions explain why fewer analysts share firm numbers. Publishing a target now signals a willingness to accept public scrutiny rather than confidence alone. Ranges and themes have replaced bold calls.

Even at that, Melker remains bullish despite the current weakness. He argues that extreme outcomes do not arrive quietly. If Bitcoin ever moves toward levels like $1 million, the path will involve sharp rallies and price action that runs far ahead of consensus.

Careful language, he says, cannot produce extreme results. At some point, price action forces analysts to speak plainly again. When that happens, forecasts will return.

Melker expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high this year. He has not attached a specific price target, but his view remains firm that further upside is likely. In his view, momentum could carry prices well beyond previous records if market conditions align.

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