Labor data does, SCOTUS tariff delay does little for crypto

Crypto markets barely flinched as a trio of macro headlines crossed the tape, with major tokens drifting sideways to lower despite fresh signals from U.S. labor data, looming Supreme Court action on Trump-era tariffs, and renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Summary

• The crypto market rallied after the latest US NFP data.
• The economy added 50k job as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%.
• Focus now shifts to the upcoming SCOTUS ruling on tariffs. 

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently hovering at around $90,955, up from the intraday low of $89,200 but still in the red for the day.

This comes as U.S. data shows the labor market cooling but still resilient in December, with modest job gains and a slightly lower unemployment rate. At the same time, investors are awaiting a Supreme Court decision on Trump-era tariffs, which was scheduled for today but has been delayed to Wednesday.

Meanwhile, escalating unrest in Iran has lifted oil prices and nudged silver higher, with gold trading mostly flat.

Crypto market gains after NFP report 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published mixed job numbers. The economy added 50,000 jobs in December, lower than the median estimate of 70,000. 

This report also showed that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% in November to 4.4%. Wage growth remained strong, rising by 3.8% during the month. 

The report showed that the labor market remained fragile as companies came to terms with Donald Trump’s tariffs. While wage growth has accelerated recently, many companies have slowed their hiring and slashed costs. For example, Amazon, a highly profitable company, announced it would lay off thousands of workers.

The soft jobs report suggests the bank may cut interest rates later this year. In a statement on Wednesday, Stephen Miran, a Fed governor, urged the committee to cut rates by 150 basis points this year. He believes that more cuts will boost the labor market.

SCOTUS Supreme Court ruling and US inflation data

The next key catalyst for the crypto market will be the Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs. The court was expected to issue the ruling on Friday, but it did not.

Most traders on Polymarket believe the justices will rule against the administration and may compel it to issue refunds. The end of the tariffs would be bullish for the crypto market, as it would lead to lower inflation. 

However, Trump still has more ways to impose tariffs. For example, he may order an investigation into countries and maintain the current tariffs on them.

Another key crypto market news to watch will be the December inflation report, which comes out on Tuesday next week. Economists expect the data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index remained at 2.7% in December as the core CPI moved to 2.6%.

A weaker-than-expected inflation would be bullish for the crypto market as it would raise the odds of more interest rate cuts. Recent Fed minutes show that most officials were open to more cuts as long as inflation moved to the target of 2%.