Polymarket: Odds of Strategy (MicroStrategy) MSCI Delisting Drop to 11%

News Brief

Prediction market Polymarket shows the odds of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) being delisted from MSCI by March 31 have fallen sharply to 11%, signaling growing confidence the company will remain in the index.

Prediction market Polymarket shows the odds of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) being delisted from MSCI by March 31 have fallen sharply to 11%, signaling growing confidence the company will remain in the index.

What Changed

• Current odds: 11% chance of MSCI delisting by March 31
• Trend: Significant decline from prior levels
• Signal: Market participants see reduced near‑term index risk

This suggests improving sentiment around Strategy’s eligibility and stability.

Why This Matters

MSCI inclusion is important because it:

• Drives passive fund and ETF ownership
• Enhances liquidity and institutional visibility
• Reduces forced selling risk from index‑tracking funds

Lower delisting odds ease a major overhang for the stock.

What’s Likely Driving the Shift

• Strategy’s continued compliance with index criteria
• Greater comfort with its Bitcoin‑centric treasury strategy
• Improved understanding that BTC volatility alone doesn’t mandate delisting

As Bitcoin stabilizes, index risk perceptions tend to fall.

Important Caveats

• Polymarket reflects crowd probabilities, not guarantees
• MSCI decisions depend on methodology and reviews, not market odds
• Conditions can change quickly with earnings or market stress

Bottom Line

With Polymarket now pricing only an 11% chance of Strategy being delisted from MSCI by March 31, the perceived risk has dropped materially. For investors, that removes a key uncertainty—though final decisions rest with MSCI, not prediction markets.