Bitcoin Hashrate Growth to Track Moore’s Law, Says Industry Analyst

TLDR

• Bob Burnett believes that Bitcoin hashrate will increase gradually and align with Moore’s Law.
• Dr. Jeff Ross predicts a sharp rise in Bitcoin hashrate driven by tax benefits starting in 2026.
• The 2026 U.S. tax code allows miners to fully depreciate infrastructure costs in the year of purchase.
• Burnett argues that energy access is a bigger constraint than capital or hardware availability.
• Grid connection delays in regions like Texas are expected to hinder rapid mining expansion.

Bitcoin’s hashrate may not surge drastically in the coming years, according to Barefoot Mining CEO Bob Burnett, who expects network growth to align with computing hardware improvements, as analysts offer differing projections on future expansion driven by tax policy and infrastructure capacity.

Ross Predicts Bitcoin Hashrate Surge in 2026

Dr. Jeff Ross, founder of Vailshire Capital Management, expects Bitcoin hashrate to grow rapidly in 2026 due to tax incentives. He pointed to the U.S. tax code reinstating 100% bonus depreciation as the primary reason behind this forecast.

This provision lets miners fully write off infrastructure costs in the year of purchase instead of over several years. Ross believes this will strongly encourage miners to upgrade equipment and expand operations starting in January 2026.

He stated,

According to him, this allows for an immediate tax write-off, making massive investment more appealing and financially efficient.

Ross further added,

He also believes they may continue rolling forward deductions into 2028, using tax rules to manage taxable income.

This setup, he argues, will result in what he describes as hardware over-investment as companies attempt to shield their profits. With ASICs available and tax benefits in place, miners are expected to expand rapidly.

Ross emphasized that many will rush to maximize benefits under this rule, building new facilities and scaling fast. He sees this as the key factor behind a rapid jump in Bitcoin hashrate across the mining sector.

The Reality Case

Bob Burnett remains skeptical about Ross’s forecast and believes physical limitations will hinder exponential growth. He argues that energy availability, not capital or hardware, will define hashrate expansion.

“There is not enough incremental energy available for hash rate to skyrocket,” Burnett stated in his recent analysis. He believes miners face long delays in accessing power infrastructure despite available funding.

In areas like Texas, interconnection delays are now measured in years, Burnett said. He explained that new mining equipment is useless without grid access or powered transformers.

Miners may have capital and equipment ready, but without power, they cannot activate new machines. Burnett highlighted this issue as a serious constraint on growth expectations.

He also pointed out that scaling infrastructure is not instantaneous, even if miners rush purchases in 2026. Burnett said machines without electricity remain “expensive paperweights.”

The Moore’s Law Prediction

Burnett expects the Bitcoin hashrate to follow Moore’s Law over the coming years, not surge sharply. Moore’s Law refers to the steady, predictable doubling of computing power every two years.

He sees this trend as a more realistic model for projecting hashrate growth under current conditions. Rather than exponential increases, Burnett projects steady gains aligned with chip efficiency.

He said, “Hash rate increases over the foreseeable future are more likely to just follow Moore’s Law.” Burnett maintains that this outcome fits better with hardware trends and infrastructure challenges.

Burnett’s outlook suggests that even with policy incentives, growth will be tempered by physical constraints. The mining sector may pursue rapid expansion, but energy availability will limit deployment.

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