Topline
Even as inflation continues to raise prices for Americans, with President Donald Trump’s tariffs hitting international trade, the cost of common Thanksgiving meal items could be lower than in previous years if purchased as store-brand products, according to a report released Thursday by Wells Fargo.
Recent federal data indicate consumer prices have continued to rise, though common Thanksgiving meal items might be cheaper.
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Key Facts
Wells Fargo, citing pricing data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nielsen, and Circana, found that while the cost of food at home rose by 2.7% annually through August, the cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has decreased by up to 3%.
A Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people, including turkey, stuffing, salad, cranberries, dinner rolls, and pumpkin pie, would cost $80 with store-brand products and $95 with name-brand products, according to Wells Fargo.
Estimated retail prices for turkeys sold by national brands are down 3.7% from a year ago, and the price of a 10-pound bag of potatoes is down 1.5%, which is largely tied to “better potato crop and competition,” Wells Fargo reported.
National name-brand frozen vegetables dropped 15%, while the price of private-brand dinner rolls dropped 22% and turkey stuffing, prepared gravy mix and fresh cranberries each fell by up to 4% from last year, and pumpkin pie prices were down 3% annually.
Tangent
Beer prices are up 3% from a year ago, though the cost of wine is largely flat, with a 0.1% decline, according to Wells Fargo. Soft drinks are cheaper, however, as prices for a 12-ounce can are down 3% annually. Costs for a two-liter bottle of soda are up 7%, though Wells Fargo reported that while the cost of a single 12-ounce can is cheaper—averaged at less than $1—a two-liter bottle is 31% less expensive, totaling an average cost of $2.21.
Key Background
Inflation has steadily risen this year, yet food prices have jumped higher than overall inflation through August, according to the Department of Agriculture. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase at a slower rate than overall food prices, however, the cost of food at home is expected to rise 2.4% through 2025, a level slower than the 20-year historical average rate (2.6%). The BLS reported last month that inflation rose to 3% in September, while core consumer prices—excluding the food and energy markets—also rose 3% annually, as gas prices (up 4.1%) accounted for the largest monthly increase among all items tracked by the BLS.
What To Watch For
Whether the BLS reports inflation data for October. Facing data delays during a government shutdown, now the longest in history, the agency reported CPI data for September last month to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security payments, which were required to be published by Nov. 1. It’s not immediately clear whether the BLS would report inflation data for October should the shutdown continue through November, however, though it’s unlikely.
Further Reading
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2025/11/06/thanksgiving-dinner-may-be-cheaper-this-year-despite-rising-inflation-report-says/
