SpaceX Is Going Public This Week. Here’s Why Most Pros Are Waiting

TLDR

• SpaceX is set to price its IPO this week, aiming to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in history
• Starlink has over 10 million subscribers with 60%+ Ebitda margins; Baron Capital projects 300 million customers by 2036
• SpaceX signed deals with Anthropic and Alphabet to rent computing capacity for ~$26 billion a year
• Most investing pros surveyed said they would not buy on day one, citing volatility risk and pre-profit status
• Governance is a key concern — Elon Musk controls all voting stock and the board

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SpaceX is expected to price its IPO later this week. The company is aiming to raise $75 billion, giving it a valuation of $1.75 trillion. That would make it the largest IPO in history.

The offering has split opinion among investors and analysts. Some see it as a rare opportunity. Most say to wait.

The Bull Case

The main growth story centers on Starlink, SpaceX’s space-based broadband service. It currently has more than 10 million subscribers and generates Ebitda margins above 60%.

Baron Capital’s Ron Baron projects 15 million Starlink customers by end of 2026 and 300 million by 2036. That could translate to $500 billion in annual revenue and $300 billion in Ebitda by the mid-2030s.

SpaceX has also moved into AI infrastructure. The company recently signed deals with Anthropic and Alphabet to rent computing capacity for around $26 billion a year. ARK Invest estimates that generates roughly $52 billion in revenue for SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s stated plan is to scale that AI compute capacity by 100 times. At current pricing, that would represent $2.6 trillion in potential AI rental revenue.

Underpinning all of this is SpaceX’s lead in rocket launches and the development of Starship, its fully reusable heavy-lift rocket. If operational, Starship could reduce the cost of reaching orbit from thousands of dollars per kilogram to hundreds.

The Bear Case

The main concern is that most of these figures are long-range projections. Starship is not yet operational. The AI satellite constellation has not been proven at scale.

Andy VandenBerg cited data from Truist showing the average max drawdown for major tech IPOs in their first year is 55%. He said there will likely be a better entry point later.

Keith Fitz-Gerald warned that retail investors are “not prepared” for the institutional trading activity that typically follows a high-profile listing.

Mike Serio pointed to Meta, which didn’t outperform the S&P 500 until more than 10 years after its IPO.

Governance and Structure

One area of agreement is governance. SpaceX’s structure gives Musk full control over voting stock and the board. Yumi Narita of the New York City Comptroller’s Office called it “unprecedentedly bad.”

Lockup terms also differ from standard IPOs. Instead of a single 180-day expiration, SpaceX uses rolling lockups tied partly to stock performance.

Barron’s said SpaceX looks like better value at $90 per share than the expected IPO price of $135.

Out of eight investing professionals surveyed by Business Insider, six said they would not buy on day one.

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