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Matrixport: Bitcoin May Enter Summer Consolidation, Key Levels in Focus
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Matrixport's latest market research report suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is gradually shifting from a spring rally to a "summer consolidation" phase. While short-term momentum remains supported by policy and capital flows, several headwinds—including macroeconomic uncertainty, slowing ETF inflows, and declining on-chain activity—are beginning to weigh on market performance. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels closely and adjust strategies accordingly.
1.Bitcoin Pulls Back After Rebound, Technical Structure Weakens
According to Matrixport, Bitcoin dropped more than 6% from its weekly high as of the first week of June, hitting a low of $103,068: the steepest weekly decline (approx. 6.9%) since March. Major altcoins like Ether and Solana also fell by over 4% and 11% respectively, reflecting a broad market correction.
Key technical observations:
- BTC price broke below a critical support level, signaling weakening upward momentum.
- Capital rotation is sluggish, with rapid shifts in sectoral focus.
- Investor risk appetite has declined, highlighting unstable market positioning.
2. Rising Macroeconomic Uncertainty Weighs on Market Sentiment
Matrixport highlights that the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI recently dropped to its lowest level since July 2024, signaling a mild contraction in the services sector and dampening growth expectations.
Other macroeconomic signals also exert pressure on risk assets:
- The U.S. Dollar Index remains relatively strong despite short-term weakness, indicating persistent global risk aversion.
- Crude oil prices have continued to fall, pointing to weakening global demand.
- Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain volatile, contributing to policy uncertainty.
These factors collectively suggest a mild stagflation scenario that limits the crypto market's potential for upward breakout.
3.ETF Flows Diverge, On-chain Momentum Slows
Both ETF and on-chain data point to weakening market momentum:
- Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of over $144 million last week, with two consecutive days of negative flows.
- In contrast, Ethereum-related ETFs recorded $285 million in inflows, likely driven by anticipation of approval, reflecting a divergence in institutional strategies.
- Slowing stablecoin supply growth and declining active wallet addresses suggest a lack of fresh capital inflow.
Matrixport notes that while the approval of Ethereum ETFs is a long-term positive, short-term flows are largely driven by arbitrage rather than sustained investor demand.
4.On-chain Activity Highlights Key Battlegrounds
Recent on-chain data reveal critical psychological and structural levels in Bitcoin's price behavior. A June 8 report from CryptoQuant identified $106,200 as a major resistance zone, aligning with the average cost basis of investors who entered in the past 1–4 weeks. As BTC approaches this level, short-term holders tend to take profits, creating selling pressure.
"A short-term holder sitting on a loss tends to panic," said CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci. "When the price gets back to their break-even level, they might say 'this much risk is enough for me' and hit the sell button–turning that zone into potential resistance (like $106.2K)."
Meanwhile, the $97,500 level shows strong support, corresponding to the cost basis of investors who entered 3–6 months ago. Unlike short-term holders, these long-term participants demonstrate stronger conviction, providing foundational support to the market.
In a surprising twist, research firm Santiment suggested that the recent public clash between Donald Trump and Elon Musk on social media may have inadvertently eased market tensions. While the dispute between two high-profile crypto proponents initially sparked concern, Santiment argues that the open confrontation may have served as a release valve for underlying political risk. This early release of negative sentiment, the firm says, could help pave the way for short-term market stabilization.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture where short-term speculative capital and long-term investment capital are in direct competition. This divergence in holding patterns makes $106,200 and $97,500 key levels to watch. Investors should closely monitor the price action around these two points, as they are likely to serve as important indicators of the market's next direction.
5.Outlook: Bitcoin May Enter a Two-Month Sideways Consolidation Phase
Taking into account both macroeconomic and structural factors, Matrixport forecasts that Bitcoin could enter a "mid-term consolidation phase" similar to the one seen between September 2021 and early 2022, potentially lasting 1.5 to 2 months: "With early signs of weakening data already emerging, we could be heading into two months of economic turbulence. In such an environment, it's unlikely that Bitcoin will continue to rally uninterrupted, especially with the Fed unlikely to step in with rate cuts while inflation expectations remain elevated."
Key factors underpinning this view include:
- A slowdown in ETF inflows and no meaningful rebound in on-chain capital.
- Macroeconomic policy in a transitional phase, lacking strong rate or fiscal stimulus.
- Technically, Bitcoin is range-bound at higher levels without breakout momentum.
6. Strategy Recommendation: Cautious Positioning, Wait for Macro Inflection Point
Matrixport emphasizes that investors should track two key macro indicators: international oil prices and the U.S. dollar index. Oil prices are a barometer of global economic activity; continued decline typically signals weakening demand. The dollar index, meanwhile, reflects shifts in expectations around Fed policy.
Current market pricing, particularly the sideways movement in bond yields, suggests that investors are reassessing the Fed's policy trajectory. Rates may stay higher for longer than previously anticipated, largely due to policymakers' concern that new tariff policies could trigger a resurgence in inflation. This cautious stance is becoming a new constraint on markets.
It’s also important to note the lagging effects of tariffs: they may lead to unexpected deterioration in future economic data. This rising policy uncertainty has already prompted more conservative investor positioning. Recent macro indicators show weakening momentum in global economic growth, increasing the risk of heightened volatility over the next two months.
In this macro backdrop, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional financial assets is growing. Especially with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance and inflation pressures unresolved, it’s unlikely the crypto market will decouple and sustain an independent rally. Investors must acknowledge that systemic risks are on the rise, and no single asset class is immune to macroeconomic forces.
7.Conclusion: The Market Is Cooling, But Opportunities Are Building
Although June has seen a convergence of technical corrections and policy uncertainty, the longer-term outlook still leaves room for optimism. Structural reforms like ETF institutionalization, upcoming macro shifts, and the rise of new narratives could fuel the next leg of the bull cycle.
Investors should seek structural opportunities within short-term volatility, remain rational and flexible, and integrate both on-chain signals and global financial trends to build a resilient mid-to-long-term investment strategy.
Disclaimer: This information does not provide advice on investment, taxation, legal, financial, accounting, consultation, or any other related services, nor does it constitute advice to purchase, sell, or hold any assets. MEXC Learn provides information for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and exercise caution when investing. MEXC is not responsible for users' investment decisions.