Bitcoin Price Pressure Brings Back 2018 Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the March monthly close as it risks its sixth straight month of losses.

• BTC price action touches $65,000 to start the week as traders expect a copycat bear flag breakdown.

• Iran headlines dominate the macro mood amid rumors of a US ground invasion.

• March could go either way for Bitcoin as it sits on the edge of its first six-month losing streak since 2018.

• Whales have begun to reduce their BTC exposure, adding to mid-term price headwinds.

• Modest demand in the current trading range lacks “magnitude” to support a trend reversal.

BTC price action revisits $65,000

Bitcoin faced last-minute selling into Sunday’s weekly close, dropping to $65,000 before a modest rebound.

Data from TradingView shows $67,500 forming a focus for Monday, with traders still firmly risk-off on the short-term outlook.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In its latest post to Telegram channel subscribers, analytics resource Technical Crypto Analyst wrote:

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Technical Crypto Analyst/Telegram

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on $70,000 rapidly becoming new resistance, with a key long-term trend line at $68,300 unable to function as support.

“BTC’s local uptrend is over – as expected – and price is starting to move lower again,” trader Jelle continued on Monday. 

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jelle/X

Others also focused on the continuing breakdown of Bitcoin’s second bear flag of 2026 — something that has already sparked sub-$50,000 BTC price targets.

“Repeating the exact same bear flag breakdown like we saw in January,” trader Roman summarized.

Iran war rattles stocks with inflation in focus

Macro markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the US-Iran war, and these keep coming as April arrives.

US President Donald Trump reported a “big day” militarily to start the week amid reports of plans for a ground invasion of Iran.

Asia stock markets opened sharply down on Monday as the impact of the oil-supply crisis made its presence felt.

“The ongoing tensions means that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, which continues placing strains on global energy markets along with uncertainty over access to fertilizer products for farming,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

S&P 500 one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Mosaic noted that the S&P’s red streak was now the longest since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. 

“The growing risk of lasting damage on the global economy from high energy prices is pressuring the stocks market,” it continued. 

Federal Reserve target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

As Cointelegraph reported, crypto markets joined stocks in a comedown in late March as the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 faded. At the same time, bets of a recession coming this year increased to their highest since last September.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to take to the stage on Monday, potentially offering more insight into officials’ positions on the economy. Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class.

“The outlook for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is in jeopardy, while long-term rates are jumping higher as well due to uncertainty around inflation,” Mosaic added. 

March risks becoming sixth red BTC price month

Bitcoin bulls have little to boast about as March comes to a close, with BTC/USD about to seal its sixth consecutive month of losses.

Data from CoinGlass shows the result on a knife-edge ahead of the monthly close, with a “green” finish still possible.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

If Bitcoin ends March lower than its starting price, it would mark the first six straight “red” months since the 2018 bear market.

“Very slow month so far all things considered. Bitcoin pretty much flat on the month just like last year,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented about the CoinGlass data. 

Daan Crypto Trades noted that over Bitcoin’s history, April has always been comparatively strong.

“Historically speaking, April is bitcoin’s 3rd best month in average returns,” he added.

Trader XO observed that in February 2019, following Bitcoin’s first six-month losing streak, monthly gains totaled 11%.

“If April sees an early sweep into the $55–60K range, it could create a compelling setup for mean-reversion longs imo… (much depends on the overall macro landscape),” they told X followers. 

Bitcoin whales flip defensive

Bitcoin whales have sparked concerns about future downward pressure on BTC price action.

After an “aggressive” accumulation period at the start of 2026, whales have started reconsidering their exposure, per data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

“A clear divergence has formed: on-chain buying has ceased while large-scale inflows to exchanges are rising,” contributor Sunny Mom wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post. 

Bitcoin exchange whale ratio (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant noted increasing whale presence among exchange inflows, with their wallets accounting for more of the largest inbound transactions.

“Furthermore, the stablecoin ratio remains at a low level, reflecting a slowdown in sidelined capital flowing into the market,” Sunny Mom added, referring to stablecoin trends. 

Bitcoin exchange stablecoin ratio (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Newer holders sit on “massive supply overhang”

Offering a hint of optimism this week, onchain analytics platform Glassnode sees promise in overall demand tendencies at current prices.

Related: Bitcoin value ‘off the chart’ as BTC price metric hits record lows in 2026

Between $60,000 and $70,000, it notes, new BTC buyers have their aggregate cost basis.

“BTC sits at the lower bound of the new buyers’ cost basis range ($60k–$70k),” it wrote in an X post on Monday. 

Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

For a sustained rebound to begin, demand simply needs to ramp up — something not yet underway as traders stay nervous about geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks.

“The accumulation setup is constructive in form, not yet in magnitude,” Glassnode added.

Previously, Cointelegraph analyzed the various aggregate cost bases of Bitcoin investor cohorts, including that of short-term holders (STHs), the majority of whom are now underwater on their BTC holdings.

Last week, CryptoQuant calculated STH share of the overall supply at 5.7 million BTC, with 92% sitting on losses.

“That’s a massive supply overhang,” it warned.

Bitcoin STH in profit/loss. Source: CryptoQuant/X

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