Ethereum (ETH) on the Edge: Critical Level Stands Between New Bull Run and a Major Crash

While the second-largest cryptocurrency has registered a significant rebound over the past month, it remains at risk of plummeting to drastically low levels during this cycle.

On the other hand, some important indicators suggest that the worst might be over and the price could be gearing up for a major rally.

The Critical Point

Ethereum, just like many other leading digital assets, has been on a roller coaster lately. Its price hovered between $2,000 and $2,400 during the past week and is currently at nearly $2,200 (per CoinGecko’s data).

The lower level was reached over the weekend when POTUS threatened to destroy the Iranian power plants if the country refused to open the key oil corridor, the Strait of Hormuz. Back then, X user Ted noted that ETH temporarily lost its $2,100 support zone, arguing that the next key level is $2,000. The analyst predicted that breaking below that mark could lead to a “cascading liquidation.”

ETH managed to hold its ground and headed north today following Donald Trump’s recent de-escalation remarks (despite being refuted by Iran).

Another analyst who stressed the importance of the $2K psychological level is Merlijn The Trader. He believes that holding above that zone could open the door to a major bull run to a new all-time high of $12,000, whereas losing it would break nine years of support.

Just a few days ago, Ali Martinez assumed that Ethereum had entered a “generational buy zone” because the asset’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) had dropped below 1. He reminded that in the past, such a development was followed by triple and even quadruple price explosions.

Most recently, he outlined several MVRV pricing bands designed to serve as a roadmap. $1,655 was depicted as the most important support level, $2,356 as the first major resistance to reclaim, $2,647/$3,639 as mid-term breakout targets, and $4,632/$5,624 as long-term “expansion” zones.

Mixed Signals From These Indicators

Over the weekend, the number of ETH coins stored on crypto exchanges registered another sharp drop, falling to a nearly 10-year low of roughly 15 million units. This trend suggests that investors continue to move their holdings from centralized platforms to self-custody, showing that they are not preparing for any mass sell-offs.

ETH Exchange Reserve, Source: CryptoQuant

Conversely, the asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) hints that another move south might be on the horizon. The indicator’s ratio has surged past 70, suggesting that ETH has entered overbought territory and could be on the verge of a correction. Meanwhile, any readings beneath 30 signal that the valuation has fallen too much in a short period of time, meaning it might be time for a rebound.

ETH RSI, Source: RSI Hunter

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