Key highlights:
- Monero forms massive bear flag on daily chart, signaling potential downside ahead
- Analyst warns rejection at $396 resistance could trigger breakdown toward $300 support
- On-chain data shows network remains healthy despite an 85-90% drawdown from all-time highs
Monero has been moving lower for months, and if you look at the charts, there’s a pattern forming that traders are starting to pay attention to. TheMoonShow pointed it out, identifying a massive bear flag on the daily timeframe.
The XMR price is currently trading around $353, down from those highs near $500 earlier in the cycle. It’s been a slow bleed, the kind that doesn’t make headlines but quietly eats away at portfolios. And now the technical setup is suggesting that this downtrend might not be over yet.
What the on-chain data reveals
The Glassnode data adds some context to what’s happening under the surface. The XMR market cap has been shrinking, now sitting in the $6.5 to $6.9 billion range. That’s a steady decline from the peaks, and it matches what we’re seeing on the price charts.
The drawdown from all-time highs is still sitting around 85% to 90%, which is brutal no matter how you look at it. But here’s the thing about Monero. It’s not like other coins. It doesn’t need hype to survive. It has real utility, real users, and a use case that isn’t going away. Privacy isn’t a trend. It’s a need. And Monero is the only game in town for that.
So while the XMR price is getting crushed in this cycle, the network itself is still doing what it does. It’s not going anywhere. But the chart is the chart. And right now, the chart is saying that the downtrend might not be done yet.
The bear flag on the XMR daily chart
Looking at the daily chart, the structure becomes pretty clear. The XMR price had a sharp drop from around $420 down to $300 back in late 2025. That was the flagpole.
Since then, the price has been drifting sideways, slowly grinding higher in a tight channel. That’s the flag part. And if you know anything about bear flags, you know what comes next. The pattern is textbook. A sharp drop, then a consolidation that slopes slightly upward or sideways, then eventually, the breakdown.
TheMoonShow is watching for a potential short if the XMR price shows a significant sell-off from the $396 zone. That level has been acting as resistance, and if the price gets rejected there, it could trigger the next leg down.
Daily XMR price chart analysis.
The daily chart shows the XMR price currently sitting well below the 100-period SMA at $413, which has been acting as a ceiling. Every time the price tries to push higher, it gets slapped back down. That’s not a bullish sign. That’s a market that’s struggling to find any real momentum.
What the XMR 4-hour chart adds
Zooming into the 4-hour chart, the picture is more of the same. The XMR price is trading near $353, with the 100-period SMA sitting just above at $352. That’s basically a coin flip right now. The price is hovering right at that moving average, which means the next few candles will probably decide the short-term direction.
4-hour XMR price chart analysis.
The chart shows resistance overhead in the $380 to $400 zone, and support below around $340 to $350. The RSI is sitting right around 50, completely neutral. No momentum in either direction. That’s what happens in these consolidation phases. The market just waits.
Volume has been light too. The 4-hour chart shows 4.45k XMR changing hands, which is nothing compared to what we saw during the more volatile moves. Low volume in a consolidation pattern usually means one of two things. Either the market is coiling for a bigger move, or nobody cares enough to move the price in either direction.
The price levels that matter
TheMoonShow’s call is pretty straightforward. Watch the $396 zone. If price gets there and shows signs of rejection, that’s the short setup. The bear flag would be confirmed, and the next target would be a retest of the recent lows around $300, maybe even lower.
On the downside, if the XMR price breaks above $400 with some conviction, the bear flag is invalid. That would mean the consolidation is actually building strength, and the next move could be higher toward $450 or even $500. But given the structure right now, that seems like the less likely scenario.
Support below is sitting around $340, with stronger support down at $300. Those are the levels to watch if the breakdown happens. A clean break below $340 would likely accelerate selling toward $300, and if that level goes, it’s anyone’s guess where the bottom is.
What comes next for XMR
Monero is at a decision point. The daily bear flag is there, plain as day. The chart is neutral, waiting for a catalyst. The on-chain data shows a network that’s still alive but a price that’s struggling.
The Moon Show’s call is worth paying attention to because the pattern is clear. Whether it plays out or not depends on whether the XMR price can hold support and flip that $396 zone into support.
CoinCodex’s 1-month XMR price prediction places the token at $389.58, pointing to a modest move higher from current levels near $353 if the bear flag pattern doesn’t trigger a breakdown first.
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Source: https://coincodex.com/article/83200/monero-price-prediction-xmr-chart-reveals-a-warning-signal-traders-are-missing/
