Apple (AAPL) Stock Rises After Morgan Stanley Survey Shows Record iPhone Upgrade Rates

TLDR

• Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating on Apple with a $315 price target
• Its late-2025 AlphaWise survey found global iPhone upgrade rates hit all-time survey highs
• China upgrade rates improved 9 percentage points year-over-year
• Apple is forecast to be the only major smartphone maker to gain market share in 2026
• Consumer willingness to pay for Apple Intelligence is declining year-over-year

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Apple got a boost on Monday after Morgan Stanley published findings from its late-2025 AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey, pointing to record iPhone upgrade momentum heading into 2026.

Apple Inc., AAPL

The stock rose around 1% in premarket trading.

Analyst Erik Woodring, who carries an Overweight rating on the stock, kept his $315 price target in place. The survey data underpins his view that Apple is in a stronger position than most of the Street currently expects.

Global blended iPhone upgrade rates hit 37% in the survey — up 2 percentage points year-over-year and an all-time high for the survey. China, a market that has been a concern for Apple investors, saw upgrade rates climb 9 percentage points year-over-year, also reaching all-time highs.

Apple stock was trading around that level going into Monday, with the company carrying a market cap of $3.64 trillion and a P/E of 31.47.

Switching rates to Apple hit a 5-year high in the survey. Average storage capacity desired grew 18% year-over-year. And 27% of the sampled installed base said they were interested in a foldable iPhone — a product that has yet to launch.

iPhone Revenue Forecast Above Street

Woodring said he expects Apple to be the only major global smartphone manufacturer to grow market share in 2026, based on the survey’s findings.

His fiscal 2026 iPhone revenue forecast sits 3% above Street consensus, calling for 6% growth versus the Street’s 3%. For fiscal 2027, his estimate is 4% above consensus — which he says would mark the strongest two consecutive years of iPhone growth in over a decade.

Apple posted $435.6 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with 10% growth.

One Soft Spot

Not everything in the survey pointed up. Consumer perception of Apple Intelligence — Apple’s AI feature set — and willingness to pay for it both declined year-over-year.

Memory price inflation is also expected to push global smartphone prices higher, with Android manufacturers seen as better positioned to benefit from that trend than Apple.

Other firms have also weighed in recently. BofA lowered its Apple price target to $320 from a higher level, while keeping a Buy rating, citing expectations around a foldable iPhone launch in 2026. Bernstein reiterated an Outperform with a $340 target, pointing to Apple’s strategy of offering a broader range of price points to grow market share.

Apple COO Sabih Khan recently visited the company’s research lab in Shenzhen and met with supply chain partners — a sign of continued operational focus on China.

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