Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Explained: Why Scaramucci Forecasts a Q4 Recovery

TLDR

• Anthony Scaramucci says Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still active and has not been broken by institutional investment
• Long-term holders took profits near the $100,000 level, adding selling pressure and driving BTC down from $126,000 to $60,000
• Institutional inflows and ETFs have reduced volatility but have not changed the underlying market cycle
• Scaramucci expects BTC price to stay choppy through most of 2026, with a new bull run starting in Q4
• The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% and fell below its 200-day moving average, with some analysts warning BTC could fall 50% if it stays correlated with stocks

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Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge Capital, says Bitcoin is in a standard four-year cycle correction and expects prices to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Scaramucci shared his views on “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast hosted by Scott Melker. He pointed to profit-taking near the $100,000 level as a key driver of the current selloff.

Long-term holders and early Bitcoin investors treated $100,000 as a psychological exit point. That wave of selling added downside pressure even as new institutional money was flowing in.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $126,000 before pulling back sharply to $60,000. The drop broke what had been a broad market expectation of a climb to $150,000 in 2025.

Scaramucci said that expectation was fueled by Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance and a more welcoming regulatory environment in the US. But markets rarely move in the direction most investors expect, he said.

He pointed to early 2023 as an example. Bitcoin started rising again in January 2023, at a time when sentiment was at its lowest following the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022.

How Institutional Investment Changed — But Did Not Break — The Cycle

Scaramucci said Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows have made the cycle less sharp but have not eliminated it. Price swings are less extreme, but the underlying pattern remains.

He described the cycle as partly self-fulfilling. Investors who believe in the four-year pattern act on it, which then reinforces the pattern itself.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have recorded roughly $2 billion in inflows over the past four weeks, the longest streak of net inflows in 2026 so far.

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Are Moving Together

Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on Saturday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on risk assets. The Iran conflict entered its third week, putting pressure on global markets.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% on Friday and closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months. That level is closely watched as a gauge of the longer-term trend in equities.

Some analysts now say Bitcoin could fall another 50% in 2026 if it continues to track the S&P 500 closely.

Scaramucci called the current correction a “garden variety” downturn in line with past cycles. He expects choppiness to continue through most of the year before a new bull cycle begins in Q4 2026.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded cumulative inflows of around $2 billion over the past four weeks.

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