Analysis: Initial jobless claims data confirms weak job market, Fed rate cut bets continue to rise

PANews reported on September 11th that according to Jinshi, on Thursday, a U.S. government report showed that initial jobless claims jumped to a nearly four-year high. Short-term interest rate futures markets continued to increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, ranging from expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, to bets on four consecutive rate cuts from September to January, and now fully pricing in three rate cuts this year, implying that the Fed will cut at all of its remaining meetings this year. However, a stronger-than-expected increase in the CPI in August may prevent the Fed from initiating significant rate cuts. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has slightly increased from 8% before the announcement to 10.9%.