Bitcoin Grills $74,000 Again After US PCE Inflation Data

Bitcoin (BTC) aimed for five-week highs at Thursday’s Wall Street open as US inflation trends stayed on track.

Key points:

• US inflation data keeps crypto and stocks higher as BTC price action tests $74,000 again.

• Bitcoin traders diverge over the future of the move, with a “bearish retest” risking a new price collapse.

• BTC/USD finally recrosses its 50-day moving average trend line.

PCE inflation emboldens Bitcoin bulls

Data from TradingView confirmed new local BTC price highs near $74,000 following the January print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Known as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, January PCE matched market expectations, coming in at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, per data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PCE Index % change (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

While still at its highest levels since late 2023, the result appeared to soothe risk assets, with US stocks up around 0.5% at the time of writing. 

In doing so, both risk assets and crypto began to diverge from a positive correlation to oil seen over the week. WTI crude was down 2% on the day at around $95 per barrel.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price forecast: $79,000 or “bearish retest?”

Commenting on Bitcoin, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe was cautiously upbeat on the outlook.

Related: Bitcoin’s ‘narrative vacuum,’ Ethereum now inevitable: Trade Secrets

“Resistance zone for me is between $76-79K for Bitcoin. I don’t expect a fast breakout in one-go, but I would assume that we’re going to see some extra momentum occur on the altcoin markets in that window,” he wrote in a post on X. 

BTC/USDT 12-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Others stayed on edge, with trader Daan Crypto Trades warning of a “large drop” if the current trading zone collapsed.

Trader Roman, already bearish, described the ongoing shift higher on BTC/USD as a “bearish retest.”

“RSI bear divs, bear price action (volume down + price up), & complete reset of MACD,” he summarized, referring to the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) price indicators on daily time frames.

BTC/USD one-day chart with RSI, MACD data. Source: Roman/X

In fresh updates on his Telegram channel on the day, meanwhile, independent analyst Filbfilb focused on open interest (OI).

Market observers, he said, should watch for OI to “ditch” — an event that would precede the end of the push higher.

Exchange Bitcoin OI (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“No sign yet,” he acknowledged, noting that price was now interacting with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). 

As Cointelegraph reported, this was a key overhead resistance zone of interest during previous breakout attempts.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

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