Ryanair (RYAAY) Stock Upgraded While Every Other Airline Gets Cut — Here’s Why

TLDR

• Evercore ISI upgraded Ryanair to “outperform,” raising its price target to $80 from $75
• Ryanair is the only airline in Evercore’s coverage to receive upward EPS revisions for 2026 and 2027
• Jet fuel crack spreads hit 44% of total barrel price — more than double the historical average of 20-25%
• United, Delta, and American Airlines all saw steep EPS estimate cuts from Evercore
• A DCF analysis puts Ryanair’s intrinsic value at €30.34 per share vs. a recent close of €26.61, suggesting it trades at a 12.3% discount

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Evercore ISI upgraded Ryanair Holdings on Thursday, moving the stock to “outperform” from “In Line” and lifting its price target to $80 from $75.

Ryanair Holdings plc, RYAAY

The firm pointed to Ryanair’s €1 billion net cash position and a 15% pullback from its January highs as key reasons for the upgrade.

The move came as Evercore cut estimates across most of its airline coverage. Jet fuel crack spreads have surged to 44% of the total Gulf Coast barrel price — more than double the 20-25% long-term historical average.

Analyst Duane Pfennigwerth called it a 2.8-sigma event, comparing the dislocation to conditions seen in 2008 and during the early stages of the Ukraine war.

Spot jet fuel was running approximately 53% above the first-quarter-to-date average as of March 11. Evercore estimates a roughly two-week lag in fuel cost realization, putting Q1 2026 Gulf Coast jet fuel at $2.40 per gallon.

Ryanair’s 2026 EPS estimate was raised to $4.77 from $4.65, and its 2027 estimate to $5.75 from $5.65. It was the only carrier in coverage to get upward revisions.

Rivals Take the Hit

The contrast with other carriers was stark. United Airlines saw its 2026 EPS estimate slashed to $8.60 from $13. Delta was cut to $5.70 from $7, and American Airlines dropped to -$0.36 from $2.

Ryanair’s net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio for 2026 stands at -0.4x, the strongest in Evercore’s coverage group. JetBlue sits at 13.7x and American at 7.2x.

Evercore’s estimates remain below consensus for most carriers. Its $8.60 United figure compares to a Street consensus of $12.91. Its Delta estimate of $5.70 is below the $6.99 consensus. For Ryanair, the firm’s $5.52 full-year 2026 estimate is roughly in line with the $5.55 consensus.

Despite all this, demand conditions across the sector look healthy. Evercore’s Airlines Survey rose 6.2 points to 70.0 at the start of March, with the international component jumping from 62.5 to 75.

Passenger throughput for the week ending March 10 was up 2% year-over-year and 5% above 2019 levels.

What the Valuation Says

A DCF analysis by Simply Wall St puts Ryanair’s intrinsic value at €30.34 per share. The stock recently closed at €26.61, implying a 12.3% discount to that estimate.

Ryanair currently trades at a P/E of 12.47x. That sits above the Airlines industry average of 8.66x but below a peer group average of 17.24x.

The stock is down 10.4% year-to-date and has pulled back 5.6% over the past 30 days. Over one year, it is still up 31.1%, and up 96.1% over three years.

Ryanair’s full-year 2026 EPS estimate of $5.52 from Evercore is roughly in line with the $5.55 Street consensus — a rare point of agreement in a coverage group otherwise facing sharp downward revisions.

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