Ethereum (ETH) Price: Capital Outflows Explained as Network Activity Hits Record

TLDR

• Ethereum daily active addresses hit nearly 2 million in February 2026, surpassing 2021 bull market peaks
• ETH price is down roughly 30% over the past six months despite the usage surge
• Ethereum ranks third in 30-day transaction fees, behind Tron and Solana
• Layer-2 networks like Base are capturing more revenue than Ethereum’s base layer
• Ethereum spot ETFs saw $12.59 million in net inflows on March 10, with zero outflows across all nine ETFs

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Ethereum’s blockchain is seeing more activity than ever before. But that hasn’t helped the price of ether (ETH).

Ethereum (ETH) Price

A report from analytics firm CryptoQuant, published March 10, found that daily active addresses on Ethereum reached close to 2 million in February 2026. That topped peaks from the 2021 bull market.

Source: CryptoQuant

Smart contract calls hit over 40 million per day. Token transfers also set records. The activity spans DeFi, stablecoins, and automated protocol use.

Yet ETH’s price has dropped around 30% over the last six months. That’s a break from past patterns, where rising on-chain activity usually pushed prices higher.

CryptoQuant says capital flows now explain ETH’s price better than usage data. Exchange flow data shows ether moving to trading platforms faster than bitcoin, which points to selling pressure.

The one-year change in Ethereum’s realized capitalization has also turned negative. That means more capital is leaving the market than entering it.

Ethereum Losing Fee Revenue to Rivals

On fees, Ethereum is falling behind. Data from DefiLlama shows Ethereum generated around $10.3 million in transaction fees over the past 30 days. Tron led with nearly $25 million, and Solana came in second at about $20 million.

Source: DefiLlama

On protocol revenue, Ethereum ranked fifth at just $1.22 million. Base, a layer-2 network built by Coinbase on top of Ethereum, earned roughly three times more protocol revenue than Ethereum’s base layer in the same period.

Layer-2 networks process transactions and send a small settlement fee back to Ethereum. This spreads economic activity across the ecosystem rather than concentrating it on the base chain.

Ethereum does host around $162 billion in stablecoin supply — about 52% of the global market. But that dominance hasn’t translated into more value for ETH itself.

ETH Price Forecasts and ETF Activity

Price prediction platform CoinCodex suggests ETH could cross $3,000 in May 2026. Its machine learning model shows the price staying above $2,000 for most of the year, with a potential peak near $3,673.

Source: CoinCodex

If that high is reached from current levels, it would represent a roughly 90% gain. By December 2026, the model puts ETH at around $2,477, a projected 28% return.

On March 10, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded total net inflows of $12.59 million. All nine ETFs reported no net outflows on that date.

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