While the world watched with growing consternation as the US and Israel attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was shut down to sea vessels, a financial problem was quietly festering beneath the surface: assassination markets were now legal, and available to almost anyone in the world.
Polymarket hosts a future hellscape
Polymarket, a prediction market platform owned by New York-based company Blockratize, currently has open assassination markets on its website.
They’re easy to find because they’re some of the most heavily traded markets on the platform.
Among these markets are:
- Iran leader by end of 2026? (the current Ayatollah is on the list)
- Will the Iranian regime fall by (numerous dates available to bet on)?
- Will the Iranian regime survive US military strikes?
Read more: Kalshi uses ‘death carve-out’ to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting
Despite the death of Ayatollah Khamenei being among the most popular prediction markets, Kalshi, as per its terms and conditions, didn’t pay out when he died. Polymarket, however, did, and half a billion dollars changed hands in the process.
Donald Trump and US politicians noticeably absent
Polymarket seems to purposely avoid including US politicians or the current US president in any possible assassination markets, but the same cannot be said for nearly every other major leader in the world.
For Xi Jinping the platform hosts markets including “China coup attempt before 2027?” and “Xi Jinping out before 2027?”
Markets on Xi Jinping’s ousting or death on Polymarket.For Putin, a market is available that asks “Putin out as president of Russia by 2026?” and even more markets are available that ask similar questions about Zelenskyy.
Nothing like these assassination markets exist for Donald Trump, who is older and less popular domestically than Xi, Putin, or Zelenskyy.
While Polymarket could previously have claimed that these markets are only related to these individuals’ political oustings, they can’t any more after paying out on Khamenei’s death.
Markets for Zelenskyy’s ousting or death on Polymarket.Read more: Polymarket ends trading loophole for bitcoin quants
Why won’t Polymarket list similar markets for Trump?
Though probably obvious to most people, the fact that Polymarket offers no assassination markets on Trump or US politicians is likely nothing to do with moral or ethical concerns.
Rather, it’s almost certainly down to the fact that Polymarket is based in the US, that its founder, Shayne Coplan, is a US citizen, and that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to and investor in the company.
Polymarket simply doesn’t want to ruffle any feathers or bite the hand that feeds it.
In that same vein, the Biden administration had effectively stopped Polymarket from advertising to or onboarding US citizens. These hinderances to the platform’s growth came to end in 2025 thanks to the Trump administration dropping multiple probes into its practices, which could have led to lawsuits and possible criminal prosecutions.
Instead, Polymarket now finds itself at the forefront of a world where leaders of countries have public hits put on them via vague market questions that leave murder open as an interpretation and solution.
Read more: Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?
Can Polymarket be stopped?
Whether or not Polymarket can continue to functionally operate as an assassination market platform remains to be seen.
While it’s been stopped from operating in specific countries and regions via regulatory actions and lawsuits, such as Ontario, Singapore, Thailand, and Belgium, as long as the US fails to bring criminal prosecutions against the executives offering to host markets for murders, there’s little that can be done.
For the record, platforms like Polymarket deny they list assassination markets, though, as detailed previously, many markets can easily be linked to the deaths of public figures.
Protos reached out to Polymarket with questions about its assassination markets but we’ve yet to receive a response.
So, in the meantime, whose death are we betting on today and what’s the liquidity look like?
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Source: https://protos.com/assassination-markets-are-legal-now-but-trump-doesnt-have-to-worry/
