PENDLE is showing short-term recovery efforts while maintaining its downtrend structure (LH/LL). A breakout above $1.2444 (BOS) could signal a transition to an uptrend, but caution is advised under BTC pressure.
Market Structure Overview
PENDLE’s current market structure exhibits a clear downtrend characteristic. The recently formed lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern confirms the bearish structure. While trading at the $1.22 level, despite a 24-hour 3.47% rise, it continues to stay below EMA20 ($1.26). This indicates that short-term bearish momentum is preserved. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 9 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/1R on 3D, 1S/3R distribution on 1W. This structure draws a resistance-heavy picture overall and highlights bearish breakdowns for trend continuation. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, with resistance positioned at $1.50. The market should monitor swing levels for a possible change of character (CHoCH).
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
There are no strong proofs yet for an uptrend (HH/HL structure), but some positive signals exist. The MACD histogram turning to the positive zone shows bullish divergence, indicating weakening momentum. RSI at 43.91 level in the neutral zone, not approaching oversold but carrying recovery potential. The rise from $1.17 to $1.23 in the last 24 hours supports the formation of a short-term higher low ($1.1703). If price breaks the $1.2444 swing high (bullish BOS), a higher high target toward $1.4399 could open up. However, this must be confirmed with a close above EMA20 and increased volume. The current structure shows a bullish continuation target of $1.9020 (score:26/100), but the probability is low.
Downtrend Risk
Downtrend (LH/LL) dominant: As long as it stays below the last swing high $1.2444, lower highs continue. The $1.1703 swing low was tested with minor breakdown risk. Supertrend bearish, structure below EMA20 preserves bearish short-term bias. On 1W timeframe, LL pattern strong, synchronized with BTC downtrend. Bearish breakdown target $0.5556 (score:22/100), can be triggered if $1.0300 support breaks. Although RSI is declining, overall momentum negative despite MACD.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels are critical. For bullish BOS, a daily close above $1.2444 (score:76/100) is required; this breaks the LH/LL structure, leads to HL formation, and gives a CHoCH signal. Next target $1.4399, then $2.1078. Bearish BOS on breakdown below $1.1703 (score:62/100): This confirms new LL and accelerates to $1.0300 (score:65/100). In MTF, 1D resistances (3) make bullish BOS difficult. CHoCH definition: Break of last LH for bullish, break of last HL for bearish. Currently, bearish BOS is closer ($1.17 range low tested).
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs: $1.2444 (strongest, score:76/100) – Main resistance, BOS level. $1.4399 (score:62/100) – Medium-term target/resistance. $2.1078 (score:64/100) – Long-term upper band. These levels define the LH pattern; if not broken, downtrend remains intact. Price at $1.22 approaching $1.2444, rejection would confirm LH.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing lows: $1.1703 (score:62/100) – Short-term support, range low. $1.0300 (score:65/100) – Strong support, bearish BOS trigger. These LLs form the foundation of the downtrend. Break of $1.1703 would make CHoCH bearish, momentum accelerates. Supports are the buyers’ last lines of defense.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $68,776 level in downtrend (+2.47% 24h), supertrend bearish. Main supports $68,155 / $64,367 / $60,000; resistances $68,933 / $71,727 / $74,025. PENDLE, highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC decline deepens LH/LL in alts. If BTC breaks $68,155, PENDLE $1.17 test increases. BTC rebound (above $68,933) gives PENDLE $1.2444 BOS chance. Dominance bearish in BTC context calls for caution in altcoins: PENDLE structure dependent on BTC, monitor. Details for PENDLE Spot Analysis and PENDLE Futures Analysis.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structural outlook bearish: LH/LL downtrend intact, $1.2444 BOS not expected. Short-term $1.17-$1.2444 range, bearish breakdown preferred. Bullish scenario possible with MACD support but requires BTC confirmation. Structure education: HH/HL uptrend (each peak/trough higher), LH/LL downtrend (each peak/trough lower). Monitor changes with BOS/CHoCH. Risk management: $1.1703 stop, $1.2444 target. Market volatile, no news but MTF resistances dominant. Follow swings for thoughtful trading.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/pendle-technical-analysis-march-9-2026-market-structure
