Smart investors adjust their strategy during bear markets and 50% drawdowns like the one seen in Bitcoin (BTC) over the last five months. The strategy, known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), involves investing the same amount at regular intervals regardless of market conditions.
Historical market cycle data and forward-looking BTC price simulations provide a clearer view of how these steady investment patterns develop across different entry periods and time horizons.
A five-year Bitcoin DCA stack shows strong net gains
A $250 weekly Bitcoin purchase starting in January 2021 resulted in $67,500 invested over a five-year period. Based on DCA simulation data, the strategy accumulated 1.65097905 BTC at an average purchase price of $40,884.
At the current Bitcoin price near $71,000, that 1.65097905 BTC is valued at roughly $120,518, representing a $53,018 gain (76%) on the invested capital. When Bitcoin traded for $100,000, the holdings were worth about $165,098, while at the cycle peak near $126,000 in October 2025, the same amount reached $208,023.
Bitcoin DCA cycle 2021-2026. Source: NewhedgeA shorter accumulation window illustrates how entry timing changes the early outcome while the strategy continues building exposure. A $250 weekly DCA beginning January 2024 results in $28,500 invested, accumulating 0.36863166 BTC with an average purchase price of $77,312.
At the current price of $71000, the amount is valued at about $26,909, a –6% unrealized loss. At $100,000, the holdings had risen to $36,863, while a $126,000 cycle high valued the Bitcoin at $46,448.
In a February X post, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston compared a similar DCA approach against equities over the past five years. A $100 weekly allocation produced $42,508 in Bitcoin versus $37,470 in S&P 500 (SPX), representing 62.9% and 43.6% returns, respectively.
Livingston noted that purchasing Bitcoin consistently during drawdowns has historically produced stronger cumulative returns despite the price volatility.
$100 DCA cycle into BTC and SPX. Source: Adam Livingston/XRelated: Bitcoin’s bullish momentum accelerates but topping $78K remains a challenge
Long-term models emphasize the time horizon
Forward-looking simulations examine how the DCA strategy could work from 2026 onward. A $250 weekly DCA beginning January 2026 allocates about $54,250 by March 2030.
The price assumptions come from Bitcoin’s long-term power-law growth curve, which tracks Bitcoin’s historical price relative to time on a logarithmic scale. The model produces a rising support band and median trend that have broadly aligned with previous market cycles.
Bitcoin power-law growth curve. Source: Bitbo.ioUsing this framework, analysts estimate that by 2028, the long-term trend support may move above $100,000, forming the base assumption for future DCA modeling. Simulations from Bitcoin Well place the median price near $430,278 by March 2030.
To capture the wider range around that path, the model also considers deviation bands of the power-law channel, producing a lower projection near $274,000 and an upper expansion scenario near $900,000.
Under those assumptions, the weekly strategy accumulates about 0.30 BTC over four years.
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At $274,000, the holdings are worth about $82,200.
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At the $430,278 median estimate, the investment value reaches $129,000.
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At a $900,000 BTC price, the investment is worth nearly $270,000.
A November 2025 study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With tested how the entry timing affects the long-term outcomes using similar projections. Even buying 20% above $94,000 (the price of BTC at that time) and exiting 20% below the projected 2035 median still produced nearly 300% gains on the remaining holdings after a decade.
The total savings reached 7.7 times the initial capital in the simulation.
The study concluded that entry timing adjusts the range of outcomes, while long holding periods drive the majority of the results.
Related: A sucker’s rally? Why Bitcoin analysts say BTC price must hold $70K
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