Daily Market Update: War, Oil, and Crypto — How the Iran Conflict Is Moving Bitcoin and Stocks Today

TLDR

• Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $67,884 on Tuesday but stayed below $70,000 as U.S.-Iran tensions kept risk appetite low
• U.S. stock futures slipped after Wall Street managed a partial recovery from steep intraday losses on Monday
• Defense and energy stocks gained; Lockheed Martin and Palantir rose, Nvidia advanced roughly 3%
• Oil prices jumped on fears the Strait of Hormuz closure could disrupt supply and reignite inflation
• Traders are watching Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and upcoming Fed speakers for interest rate clues

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Bitcoin edged higher on Tuesday, rising 2.5% to $67,884. The move came as Wall Street also attempted a partial recovery, though both markets stayed cautious.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The crypto market has been range-bound for most of February. Bitcoin has traded between $60,000 and $70,000 for weeks and is down 22% so far in 2026.

Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $69,213 on Monday before pulling back. It has not been able to hold above $70,000 since late January.

The mood across markets has been shaped by an escalating conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. and Israel carried out joint strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the conflict.

President Trump said the war could last four to five weeks, though he left the door open to a longer timeline. Leaders in all three countries showed little sign of backing down as of Tuesday.

Oil and Defense Stocks Move on Supply Fears

Oil prices jumped sharply as reports emerged that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed. Threats were made against vessels trying to pass through the waterway, raising fears about global supply disruptions.

Energy and defense stocks led gains on Monday. Lockheed Martin and Palantir both climbed, while Nvidia rose about 3%.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

U.S. stock futures slipped overnight. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3%, and Dow futures were also down around 0.2%.

Despite the dip in futures, the major indexes managed to finish higher on Monday. The S&P 500 closed slightly up, and the Nasdaq Composite also advanced.

Investors appeared to buy the dip during Monday’s session. The Dow recovered most of its early losses by the close.

Crypto Prices and Economic Data in Focus

Broader crypto markets also gained on Tuesday but stayed below Monday’s peaks. Ethereum rose 2.6% to $1,993. XRP added 0.9%, Solana rose 2.9%, and BNB gained 2.5%.

Dogecoin fell 0.6%, while $TRUMP rose 1.5%. Cardano slipped 1.1%.

Corporate crypto buyer Strategy made recent purchases, but the move did little to shift overall sentiment. Bitcoin remains down over 40% from its record highs hit in October 2025.

Traders are watching Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for February. The data is expected to shape expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak before Friday’s print. Interest rate expectations directly affect crypto prices, given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions.

Retail earnings are also on the radar this week. Target is scheduled to report Tuesday, with Costco reporting later in the week.

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