PHL may hit IPO target this year — analysts

By Alexandria Grace C. Magno, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES is likely to meet its target of four initial public offerings (IPOs) this year as market conditions improve and regulatory hurdles ease, according to analysts.

“I think four IPOs are achievable for the Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE) this year, supported by improving market conditions, firmer investor sentiment, and a lower interest rate environment,” DragonFi Securities Equity Analyst Jarrod Leighton M. Tin said in a Viber message.

“We see credible candidates such as Mynt and Hann Holdings potentially moving forward with listings if momentum holds,” he added.

The PSE expects four IPOs in 2026. Some of the most anticipated listings include the electronic wallet platform GCash and PNB Holdings Corp. (PHC), which plans to list by way of introduction.

“It’s possible for PSE to hit its target of four IPOs, especially after today’s news on Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) free float limits for new listings, which could pave the way for the much-awaited GCash IPO,” BDO Securities Corp. President John Tristan D. Reyes said in a Viber message on Wednesday last week. “On the other hand, PNB Holdings is still addressing some regulatory hurdles.”

The SEC has eased minimum free float requirements for large IPOs in the Philippines through Memorandum Circular No. 11, introducing a tiered public ownership framework.

Under the circular signed by SEC Chairperson Francisco Ed. Lim on Feb. 24, companies with an expected market capitalization of over P50 billion at the time of listing must have a minimum public float of 15%, subject to a minimum offer size of P10 billion.

The 15% minimum public float is higher than the 12% proposed in the SEC’s draft circular, but it could enable mega-IPOs such as Globe Fintech Innovation (Mynt) — the parent company of GCash — which earlier said that a 20% minimum public float was too high for its offering that could peg the company’s valuation at at least $8 billion.

“Even though the market bounced from ~5600 to the 6500-6600 range, the environment still feels fragile. Investor confidence remains shaky, and uncertainties around local economic growth, plus global risks like tariffs and geopolitical tensions, could still weigh heavily on valuations,” Mr. Reyes said.

He noted that these factors could affect both the demand and supply sides.

“On the demand side, investors could remain cautious and ask for bigger discounts for these prospective IPOs. On the supply side, companies may hesitate if they think they won’t get the valuation they want,” he added.

Last Thursday, the PSE index (PSEi) closed at 6,625.46, its highest finish in over 14 months, or since it closed at 6,641.35 on Dec. 12, 2024.

“I think we’re still cautiously optimistic for the year. Probably especially after last year,” Unicapital Securities, Inc. Research Head Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of an event.

“For this year, we’re hoping that the four IPOs can be reached. Although, at this point, based on the sentiment, we’re still thinking that probably only half of them might push their listings,” she added.

In 2025, the PSE missed its IPO target, recording only two listings out of the projected six.

The companies that went public last year were Cebu-based fuel distributor and retailer Top Line Business Development Corp., which debuted in April, and West Zone water concessionaire Maynilad Water Services, Inc., which completed its offering in November.

Hann Holdings, Inc., SM Prime Holdings’ real estate investment trust, and Razon-led Prime Infrastructure Capital, Inc. were among several companies that shelved their IPO plans.

“For IPOs, if the market stays strong, that will be helpful for IPOs,” COL Financial Group, Inc. Chief Equity Strategist April Lynn Lee-Tan said in a Viber message. “I’m also optimistic regarding the amendment to the real estate investment trusts (REITs) law as we could see more REIT IPOs.”

SEC Memorandum Circular (MC) No. 1, Series of 2026, revises the definition of income-generating real estate assets.

These include assets with regular or predictable cash flows from leases, rentals, tolls, user fees, ticket sales, parking, and storage fees. They also cover toll roads, railways, airports, ports, information and communications technology and energy infrastructure, data centers, parking facilities, malls, warehouses, fixtures, and real rights such as usufructs, easements, and leases.

The SEC said the amendments are aligned with the objectives of the REIT Act by expanding eligible income-generating assets and allowing unlisted special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and incorporated joint ventures (JVs), consistent with global practices.

Meanwhile, Jesus Mariano P. Ocampo, president and chief operating officer of Investment & Capital Corp. of the Philippines (ICCP), said Philippine fundraising totals remained solid last year despite falling short of IPO targets.

He noted that the PSE saw strong activity overall despite limited IPOs.

In 2025, the PSE saw total capital raised from primary and secondary share sales and warrants jump 75% to P144.14 billion, from P82.37 billion the prior year.

The PSE hosted two IPOs that year, along with eight follow-on offerings and 14 private placements.

Mr. Ocampo also cited potential listings such as GCash as prospects that could broaden market participation, particularly if marketed to everyday retail users.

“We really hope that GCash will go public and they will market it at the grassroots level,” Mr. Ocampo told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of an event.

“What the issuers are really looking for is market participation. Will market participation improve? Will risk appetite return? Will investors go for risky assets again? I believe that’s what issuers want to see before they do the IPO,” Philstocks Financial Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco told BusinessWorld.

He said net value turnover is currently volatile and has been tepid over the past week, expressing hope that it returns to pre-pandemic levels. “If you can see that return in the market, then perhaps you can see more IPOs again,” he said.

In 2025, the stock market declined as a corruption scandal involving flood control projects shook public and investor confidence.

The PSEi closed 2025 at 6,052.92, down 7.29% from end-2024. On Nov. 14, the PSEi plunged to 5,584.35, its weakest close in nearly five and a half years, or since the 5,570.22 close on May 28, 2020.