Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Heads Into Earnings Wednesday With High Expectations

TLDR

• Nvidia reports Q4 FY26 earnings on February 25, with analysts expecting 68% revenue growth to $66.1 billion.
• Wedbush reiterates Buy with a $230 price target, citing strong AI chip demand and a “dominant share position.”
• Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy, with an average price target of $265.07 — implying ~39% upside.
• Risks include competition from hyperscaler-designed chips, TSMC supply constraints, and a potential pullback in AI spending.
• NVDA stock is up just ~2% in 2026 after gaining over 40% in 2025.

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Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter FY26 results on February 25, and Wall Street is watching closely.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of $1.54, up over 70% from $0.89 a year ago. Revenue is forecast to jump 68% year-over-year to $66.1 billion.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson reiterated a Buy rating ahead of the print, with a price target of $230. That implies about 20% upside from current levels.

Bryson said Nvidia’s supply chain reliability gives it a strong competitive edge and expects the company to beat estimates and offer guidance above Street expectations.

He projects 66% year-over-year revenue growth for all of fiscal 2026, with the Data Center division alone expected to generate nearly $191 billion. That division grew 142% year-over-year to $115.2 billion in FY25.

Truist Securities also reiterated a Buy with a $275 price target. The firm expects Q4 revenue of $66.07 billion and EPS of $1.53, in line with consensus.

Truist flagged persistent demand strength in AI infrastructure, with cloud providers continuing to revise spending plans higher. Book-to-bill ratios are also improving across the sector.

For Q1 FY27, consensus calls for $72.7 billion in revenue — up 60% year-over-year.

Competition Is Picking Up

Not everyone is purely bullish. Hyperscalers are increasingly designing their own AI chips, which poses a longer-term threat to Nvidia’s grip on the market.

Google has emerged as a notable rival, reportedly in talks to supply Meta — one of Nvidia’s largest customers — with its in-house TPU chips. AMD is also set to unveil a new flagship AI server later this year.

Nvidia struck a deal reportedly worth $20 billion to license chip technology from Groq, a move analysts say strengthens its position in AI inference.

Last week, Nvidia also agreed to sell millions of chips to Meta, though terms were not disclosed.

Supply and China In Focus

The biggest constraint on growth may not be demand — it’s supply. Nvidia and rivals are competing for capacity on TSMC’s 3-nanometer assembly lines, which could limit how quickly chips ship.

One potential upside lever: China. CEO Jensen Huang said last month he hopes to resume sales of the H200 chip there, with an export license reportedly being finalized. AMD has already received licenses to ship modified chips to China.

NVDA stock has gained just 2.7% so far in 2026, a sharp slowdown after surging over 40% in 2025. Sentiment has been dented by ASIC competition fears, data center financing concerns, and the DeepSeek scare earlier this year.

Across Wall Street, the consensus is Strong Buy — 32 Buys and one Sell. The average price target sits at $265.07, implying roughly 39% upside.

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