Will Bitcoin Collapse Before Year-End? Prediction Markets Say Yes

Bitcoin

After climbing to an all-time high above $124,000 in mid-August, Bitcoin has slipped back under $110,000 and is now trading in a narrowing range.

While some long-term bulls still see $200,000 as a realistic target before 2026, short-term sentiment is turning more cautious.

Prediction Markets Signal Bearish Tilt

Data from Polymarket shows a majority of bettors now believe Bitcoin will slide below six figures before the year ends. The market is pricing in a 62% chance of a drop under $100,000, reflecting growing conviction after BTC dipped under $110,000 for the first time in six weeks.

Analysts Weigh Institutional Support vs. Whale Selling

Min Jung, an analyst at Presto Research, said the bearish outlook cannot be dismissed. According to Jung, institutional buyers and corporate treasuries have so far absorbed most of the selling pressure from long-term holders. That dynamic has kept the market from experiencing a deeper breakdown.

But the analyst warned that this balance could shift quickly. “If large investors decide to unload more aggressively, the key question is whether there will be enough new inflows to absorb that supply,” Jung said. Without continued demand from big players, a break below $100,000 becomes increasingly likely.

A Critical Test Ahead

For now, Bitcoin remains in a tug-of-war between resilient institutional demand and the looming threat of whale sell-offs. Prediction markets suggest traders are preparing for the downside, even as long-term forecasts continue to point toward six-figure gains.

Whether BTC holds the line or cracks below $100,000 may determine how investors approach the final stretch of 2025.

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Author

Alexander Zdravkov is a person who always looks for the logic behind things. He is fluent in German and has more than 3 years of experience in the crypto space, where he skillfully identifies new trends in the world of digital currencies. Whether providing in-depth analysis or daily reports on all topics, his deep understanding and enthusiasm for what he does make him a valuable member of the team.