Nebius (NBIS) Stock: Could Meta’s $130B Spending Plan Trigger a Revenue Explosion?

TLDR

• Meta plans $115B–$135B in capex for 2026, a ~74% year-over-year jump
• Meta will deploy Nvidia GPUs through cloud partners, including Nebius
• Nebius holds a $3B Meta contract and $19B+ Microsoft deal — backlog tops $20B
• Revenue forecast jumps from $530M in 2025 to $3.4B in 2026
• BWS Financial reiterates Buy with $130 price target; Morgan Stanley holds at $126

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Meta Platforms just announced it plans to spend between $115 billion and $135 billion on capital expenditure in 2026. That’s a 74% increase at the midpoint compared to last year, and a large slice of it is going toward Nvidia GPUs.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Meta confirmed it will buy “millions of Nvidia Blackwell and Rubin GPUs” and deploy them partly through Nvidia’s cloud partner network. Nebius is one of those partners.

That detail matters. It puts Nebius directly in the path of Meta’s spending.

Nebius offers GPU access — H100, H200, and Blackwell systems — on hourly rentals. Customers also run AI models through its software stack using token-based purchases.

Meta isn’t just a potential future customer either. In November 2025, it awarded Nebius a $3 billion, five-year contract. With Meta now ramping up infrastructure spending, that relationship could grow.

A $20B Backlog and Two Major Clients

Nebius also holds a five-year Microsoft contract worth over $19 billion. Together, those two deals push its total backlog past $20 billion — and that number could rise as big tech keeps spending.

During the Q4 2025 earnings call, Morgan Stanley analyst Josh Baer asked about the software attach rate — essentially, how many compute customers also buy Nebius software. Management’s answer: 100%. Every AI cloud customer uses their software stack.

The CFO expressed confidence in hitting a 40% margin target, saying strong AI cloud demand would offset losses in smaller business segments.

Revenue Forecast and Expansion Plans

Analysts forecast Nebius revenue to climb from $530 million in 2025 to roughly $3.4 billion in 2026 — a roughly 540% increase.

The company plans to scale from 7 data center sites in 2025 to 16 by end of 2026, with active power capacity growing from 170 megawatts to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt.

BWS Financial reiterated a Buy rating on February 17, 2026 with a $130 price target. Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold on February 13 with a $126 target.

NBIS traded at $97.80 as of February 20, 2026, with a 52-week range of $18.31 to $141.10 and a market cap of $25 billion.

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