EUR/USD holds above 1.1800; German IFO survey fails to inspire

The EUR/USD pair trims a part of its intraday gains, though it manages to hold above the 1.1800 mark through the first half of the European session on Monday and moves little following the release of the IFO institute’s business survey for February.

The headline IFO – Business Climate Index edged higher to 88.6 in February from 87.6 in the previous month, while the Current Assessment Index came in at 86.7 for the current month, compared with 85.7 previously. The data, however, fails to influence the shared currency amid the uncertainty over European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s tenure and renewed trade-war fears.

In fact, US President Donald Trump imposed a new global levy of 15% following a Supreme Court verdict on Friday against his sweeping reciprocal tariffs. In response, the European Parliament’s trade chief stated that the European Union (EU) will propose freezing the ratification process of the trade deal with the US until they’ve received details from the Trump administration on its trade policy.

Meanwhile, the latest developments reignite the so-called “Sell America” trade, which, along with bets for at least two more 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), weighs heavily on the US Dollar (USD). This, in turn, continues to act as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair, though the lack of any follow-through buying warrants some caution before positioning for further gains.

Economic Indicator

IFO – Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).