Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Targets $1,500 as Key Metrics Tumble

Key Insights

• Ethereum price is at risk as spot ETF outflows gained steam.
• The futures open interest has continued tumbling in the past few months.
• The coin has formed a bearish pennant pattern, pointing to more downside.

Ethereum price recoiled this week as demand for cryptocurrencies waned. ETH was stuck at $1,963, a few points below the crucial resistance level at $2,000. It remains much lower than the all-time high of $4,950. Still, the coin could be at risk of a deeper dive to the key psychological level at $1,500 as key metrics drop.

Spot Ethereum ETF Outflows Continued

Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that demand for Ethereum ETFs has continued waning in the past few months, a sign that institutional investors have stayed away.

These funds shed over $123 million in assets this week, continuing a trend that started a few months ago. The outflows were lower than the previous week’s $161 million, likely because Monday’s markets were closed.

This data shows that outflows have brought the monthly figure to over $450 million, surpassing January’s $353 million. The funds have shed over $2.8 billion in the last four months, bringing the cumulative total net inflows to over $11.5 billion.

The same trend is happening in Bitcoin, whose ETFs have shed nearly $1 billion this month and over $7.5 billion in the last four consecutive months.

Therefore, these numbers indicate that American retail and institutional investors have remained on the sidelines over the past few months and have not bought the dip as the crypto winter continues.

Ethereum Futures Open Interest Has Collapsed

While the performance of Ethereum ETFs is important, the most notable is the action in the futures market, where most tokens are traded.

For example, data compiled by CoinGlass shows that the futures open interest has plunged from last year’s high of $70 billion to the current $23 billion, and this trend may continue.

Futures open interest refers to the outstanding contracts in the futures market awaiting execution. In most cases, a drop in the futures open interest during bear markets is a sign that demand is waning.

The open interest has been in a strong downward spiral since October 10, when liquidations in the crypto market jumped to over $20 billion in a single day.

Donald Trump’s Tariffs and War in Iran

The other main reason the Ethereum price may crash is that Donald Trump announced new global tariffs on Friday. He launched a 10% tariff after the Supreme Court ruled against Donald Trump’s tariffs.

While the tariff decision was bullish for cryptocurrencies, Trump then added a new 10% levy as the administration maps other strategies to impose additional levies going forward.

Most importantly, Trump is considering attacking Iran. He has accumulated the largest military group in the region for decades as he tries to force Iran to capitulate.

In a statement, he said that he was considering limited attacks in the country to put additional pressure on the leadership.

The risk, however, is that Iran has warned that any attack will lead to a war in the region. Indeed, some analysts believe that it is in its interest to respond forcefully, as that will lead to higher crude oil prices and inflation. Also, Iran may benefit from having some American casualties, as that will hurt Trump politically.

Ethereum Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the ETH price has plunged in the past few months as the crypto market crash has gained steam. It has remained below all moving averages and formed a bearish pennant pattern, a common continuation sign in technical analysis.

ETH price chart | Source: TradingView

The coin remains below the Supertrend and the Ichimoku cloud indicators. Therefore, the pennant and indicators suggest the coin will continue to fall, potentially to the key support level at $1,500.

mOn the other hand, a move above the key resistance level at $2,200 will invalidate the bearish outlook and point to more upside, potentially to $2,621.

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