Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Must Reclaim These Key Levels to End the Downtrend

Bitcoin’s broader structure continues to reflect a dominant bearish trend, yet the recent price action shows a short-term recovery attempt from the major demand zone around $60K–$62K. At this stage, the market is positioned between a higher-timeframe bearish structure and a developing lower-timeframe corrective rebound.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the asset is still trading within a well-defined descending channel, with both the upper and lower boundaries clearly guiding the macro structure. After losing the $79K level and breaking decisively below the $75K range, Bitcoin accelerated toward the major blue demand zone around $60K, where a strong reaction occurred.

The recent bounce from this region has pushed the price back toward the mid-$60Ks to high-$60Ks area, but the overall structure remains corrective. The price is still trading below the channel’s midline and beneath the 100- and 200-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward.

As long as Bitcoin remains below the broken $75.3K support and under the $78.9K–$81.4K Fibonacci cluster, the broader bias on the daily timeframe stays bearish. The current recovery appears to be a pullback within a dominant downtrend rather than the start of a confirmed reversal.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the corrective nature of the rebound becomes more evident. After the sharp capitulation wick into the $60K region, the price formed a local base and initiated a rebound toward the $70K area. However, this recovery is unfolding beneath a descending trendline and below the prior breakdown structure.

The $73K–$76K supply zone, which previously acted as support, now stands as a strong resistance area. Until the asset reclaims this region and invalidates the sequence of lower highs, the short-term structure remains vulnerable to another leg down.

The recent consolidation around the high-$60Ks reflects a temporary equilibrium between buyers defending the higher low and sellers protecting overhead resistance. A decisive break above the descending trendline could open the door toward the mid-$70Ks, while failure to sustain momentum increases the probability of a renewed test of the $60K demand zone.

Onchain Analysis

On-chain data from the Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) suggests that sustained downside pressure is beginning to affect even Bitcoin’s most resilient cohort, marking a subtle but important shift in market dynamics.

Although the annual average LTH-SOPR remains elevated at 1.87, the metric has recently dropped below the critical 1.0 threshold, reaching 0.88—a configuration not seen since the late stages of the 2023 bear market. Historically, such breakdowns tend to occur during more advanced corrective phases, when even strong hands begin reducing exposure under sustained pressure.

That said, broader timeframe data paints a more nuanced picture. The monthly average SOPR still stands at 1.09, implying that, on aggregate, long-term holders are still realizing profits. Full-scale capitulation has typically coincided with much deeper compressions, with prior bear market bottoms marked by monthly SOPR levels approaching 0.5.

In this context, the current move does not yet confirm structural capitulation. Rather, it signals early stress among long-term participants—an inflection point that could either stabilize if market conditions improve or evolve into deeper distribution should selling pressure intensify.

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