PANews reported on August 23rd that, according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' fixed income research indicates that the current situation in the United States suggests downside risks to job growth, and shifts in the risk balance may require policy adjustments. Following Powell's speech, the market is trading on an easing Fed policy, raising the probability of a soft landing in US fundamentals. Asset prices, with the exception of the US dollar, have risen across the board. Looking ahead at the path of monetary policy, the Fed is expected to lean towards easing. A 25bp rate cut in September is the baseline scenario, and the probability of two 25bp rate cuts in the fourth quarter is likely higher than one. Further considering the Trump administration's influence on the Fed, the magnitude of this easing cycle may exceed market expectations.PANews reported on August 23rd that, according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' fixed income research indicates that the current situation in the United States suggests downside risks to job growth, and shifts in the risk balance may require policy adjustments. Following Powell's speech, the market is trading on an easing Fed policy, raising the probability of a soft landing in US fundamentals. Asset prices, with the exception of the US dollar, have risen across the board. Looking ahead at the path of monetary policy, the Fed is expected to lean towards easing. A 25bp rate cut in September is the baseline scenario, and the probability of two 25bp rate cuts in the fourth quarter is likely higher than one. Further considering the Trump administration's influence on the Fed, the magnitude of this easing cycle may exceed market expectations.
Huatai Fixed Income: The Fed's 25bp rate cut in September should be the baseline scenario
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PANews reported on August 23rd that, according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' fixed income research indicates that the current situation in the United States suggests downside risks to job growth, and shifts in the risk balance may require policy adjustments. Following Powell's speech, the market is trading on an easing Fed policy, raising the probability of a soft landing in US fundamentals. Asset prices, with the exception of the US dollar, have risen across the board. Looking ahead at the path of monetary policy, the Fed is expected to lean towards easing. A 25bp rate cut in September is the baseline scenario, and the probability of two 25bp rate cuts in the fourth quarter is likely higher than one. Further considering the Trump administration's influence on the Fed, the magnitude of this easing cycle may exceed market expectations.
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