The new tool lets users automate bets against consistent losers — instead of trying to copy winners.
Prediction markets are everywhere. But rising participation doesn’t necessarily transform into profits for regular users.
Prediction market aggregator Stand announced today, Feb. 13, that it’s launching a tool to let users automatically take the opposite position of trades across popular platforms — namely from traders that tend to lose. Edward Ridgely, founder of Stand, said in a press release shared with The Defiant that conventional copy‑trading breaks down in prediction markets.
“Many operate multiple wallets and can easily front-run anyone copying their moves. The more interesting edge is in systematically counter-trading the consistent losers,” Ridgely explained.
The new feature on Stand allows counter-bets against systematically bad bettors, and also helps users avoid common pitfalls, such as blindly following traders who perform well in one market but lose their edge in others.
Destined to Lose
It’s worth noting, however, that there’s currently no rigorous research quantifying how profitable either copy‑trading or counter‑trading bots are for users in prediction markets.
What the data does show so far, however, is a clear concentration of profits among a small cohort of systematic participants, leaving the majority of retail traders on the wrong side of outcomes.
About 70 % of traders on Polymarket lose money, according to a December 2025 study by Felix Reichenbach of Technische Universität Berlin and Martin Walther of the German International University.
Fraction of traders with positive total profits over time on Polymarket. Source: SSRNThe researchers analyzed more than 124 million trades and found that only around 30% of accounts ended the period with net gains, meaning 70% of participants were on the losing side.
That gap in profitability has shaped trader behavior. Multiple automated copy‑trading bots like PolyFlash or PolydexLab allow users to mirror the positions of top wallets in real time, usually for subscription fees.
This arms-race-like dynamic has made simple copy-trading almost ineffective, given that the most successful accounts can just front‑run the crowd by reacting to profitable trades faster on-chain.
Prediction Market Mania
Prediction markets exploded in popularity in 2025, kicking off mainstream usage with the U.S. 2024 presidential election. The largest platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, have pushed into mainstream markets with an accelerating number of high-profile media and sports partnerships with the likes of the NHL, UFC, MLS, as well as Dow Jones, X, and CNBC.
Sports, politics, culture and crypto markets are now attracting hundreds of millions of dollars, underscoring how much capital these platforms are drawing.
Open interest across platforms surged past $1.1 billion earlier this month, while trading volumes also broke new highs, as The Defiant reported earlier.
Stand’s own monthly DEX volumes via its prediction market terminal have been on the rise since it launched in October, reaching $16.44 million in January.
Monthly DEX volumes on Stand. Source: DefiLlamaSource: https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/prediction-market-aggregator-stand-launches-counter-trading-tool
