Roku Stock Jumps 13% as Earnings Nearly Double Analyst Expectations

TLDR

• Roku stock jumped 13% in premarket trading after reporting Q4 adjusted earnings of 53 cents per share on $1.39 billion revenue, crushing analyst estimates of 28 cents per share on $1.35 billion revenue
• The company guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $635 million on $5.5 billion revenue, beating Wall Street expectations of $603 million EBITDA and $5.4 billion revenue
• JPMorgan maintained its Overweight rating with a $125 price target, highlighting platform revenue growth acceleration from 20% in Q3 to 25% in Q4
• Multiple analysts raised price targets following earnings, with Seaport Research Partners increasing their target to $130 from $116, implying 57% upside
• Growth drivers include the Amazon DSP partnership, upcoming sporting events like the World Cup and Winter Olympics, and expansion of subscription services

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Roku delivered a knockout fourth-quarter earnings report that sent shares soaring 13% to $93.34 in premarket trading Friday. The streaming platform crushed analyst expectations across the board.

The company posted adjusted earnings of 53 cents per share on revenue of $1.39 billion. Wall Street had expected just 28 cents per share on $1.35 billion in revenue. Revenue jumped 16% year-over-year.

The earnings beat sparked a wave of analyst optimism. Seaport Research Partners analyst David Joyce raised his price target to $130 from $116, maintaining a Buy rating. His new target suggests shares could climb 57% from Thursday’s close.

Roku, Inc., ROKU

JPMorgan doubled down on its Overweight rating with a $125 price target. The bank pointed to accelerating platform revenue growth as the main catalyst. Platform revenue grew 18% in the quarter, ahead of the expected 17%.

When you strip out political advertising and accounting adjustments, the core growth story looks even better. JPMorgan’s analysis showed core growth accelerated from 20% in Q3 to 25% in Q4.

The company’s 2026 guidance impressed investors just as much as the quarterly results. Roku expects adjusted EBITDA of $635 million on revenue of $5.5 billion for the current year. That beats consensus estimates of $603 million EBITDA and $5.4 billion revenue.

What’s Driving the Growth

Several factors are powering Roku’s revenue surge. The Amazon DSP partnership is ramping up and gaining traction. The company also benefits from subscription fees when users sign up for streaming services through its platform.

Live sports streaming represents a major opportunity. Upcoming events like the U.S. midterms, FIFA World Cup, and Winter Olympics should drive subscriber growth. Roku collects a cut of subscription fees for channels bought through its platform.

Platform Revenue Momentum

The platform revenue acceleration caught Wall Street’s attention. Management guided for 18% platform revenue growth in 2026, above the 15% consensus estimate. They described their second-half outlook as conservative compared to first-quarter guidance of 21%.

Advertising spending remains robust. The shift from traditional linear TV to streaming continues to benefit Roku’s business model. The company makes streaming devices and licenses its operating system to TV manufacturers.

Jefferies and Wedbush both included Roku on their lists of top stock picks for 2026 back in December. JPMorgan had previously named it their top pick for the year.

The company is expanding its advertising tools and subscription offerings. New products include Ads Manager and subscription services like Frndly, Howdy, and Premium Subscriptions.

Roku’s stock has been volatile, trading with a beta of 1.99. Shares are down 23.56% year-to-date despite Friday’s premarket rally. The company maintains strong financials with a current ratio of 2.74 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet.

The fourth-quarter results show Roku nearly doubled earnings expectations with an EPS surprise of 96.3%. Analysts revised their earnings expectations upward following the report.

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