Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Crashes 16%: Revenue Miss Wasn’t the Only Problem

TLDR

• Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q4 EBITDA loss of $21 million with revenue of $4.3 billion, missing Wall Street’s $4.6 billion estimate by roughly 6%
• Full-year 2025 EBITDA collapsed to $37 million from $773 million in 2024, hurt by weak auto production and poor Canadian market conditions
• Shares dropped 16% to $12.31 as investors were disappointed by lack of concrete updates on strategic POSCO partnership despite ongoing due diligence
• CEO expects agreement with Korean steel maker POSCO in first half of 2026, with management projecting dramatically improved 2026 results
• Company forecasts 16.8 million tons of steel shipments in 2026, up 3% from 16.2 million tons in 2025, with capital spending steady at $700 million

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Cleveland-Cliffs shares tumbled 16% to $12.31 on Monday after the steel maker delivered disappointing fourth-quarter results. The stock gapped down in premarket trading, opening at $13.10 from the previous close of $14.73.

The company reported a fourth-quarter EBITDA loss of $21 million on revenue of $4.3 billion. Wall Street had expected a smaller loss of $7 million on sales of $4.6 billion. The revenue miss of roughly 6% triggered the selloff.

Steel shipments came in at 3.8 million tons for the quarter, roughly flat compared to the same period last year. The company’s performance showed little improvement in volume despite better pricing conditions.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., CLF

For full-year 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs posted EBITDA of just $37 million. That marked a steep decline from the $773 million reported in 2024.

CEO Lourenco Goncalves blamed weak auto production, a problematic slab contract, and poor Canadian market conditions for the year’s struggles. Steel slabs are intermediate products that get rolled into coils.

POSCO Partnership Remains in Limbo

Beyond the earnings miss, investors appeared frustrated by the lack of progress on a potential deal with Korean steel maker POSCO. The two companies have been discussing a strategic partnership that could include an equity investment in Cleveland-Cliffs.

Goncalves said in the earnings release that POSCO continues conducting due diligence. He expects an agreement to be finalized in the first half of 2026, but provided no specific timeline or deal terms.

The adjusted earnings per share of negative $0.43 actually beat consensus estimates of a $0.62 loss. That small bright spot did little to offset investor disappointment over the revenue shortfall and partnership delays.

Management Eyes 2026 Recovery

Despite the weak 2025 results, management struck an optimistic tone for the year ahead. Goncalves said all three negative factors from 2025 have improved as 2026 began.

Benchmark steel prices have climbed to about $975 per ton, up from $760 a year ago. The increase stems partly from President Donald Trump’s import tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Cleveland-Cliffs expects to ship roughly 16.8 million tons of steel in 2026. That represents a 3% increase from the 16.2 million tons shipped in 2025. Capital spending will hold steady at around $700 million.

Wall Street analysts project 2026 EBITDA of $1.5 billion. The company maintains about $3.3 billion in liquidity.

Analyst ratings remain mixed on the stock. The consensus rating is “Hold” with an average price target of $13.70. Three analysts rate it a Buy, five have Hold ratings, and two recommend selling.

The company finished with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.41 and maintains a current ratio of 2.04. Cleveland-Cliffs has a market capitalization of $6.09 billion.

Despite Monday’s drop, the stock had climbed 47% over the prior 12 months heading into earnings. That rally was fueled by rising steel prices and tariff optimism.

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