Colossal wager predicts Trump will bomb Iran by end of day — triggering insider fears

An anonymous online trader placed a “huge” wager Monday on the Trump administration launching a military strike against Iran by the end of the day Monday, a bet so colossal that the payout could reach around $4 million, sparking speculation that the individual might have insider knowledge.

The online trader joined the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform Polymarket last November, and has since made only two wagers; an unsuccessful $75,000 bet against Trump winning the 2024 election, and a nearly $100,000 bet that the United States would strike Iran by the end of Monday.

“A potential U.S. Gov insider has been spotted. A wallet just placed $100K on the U.S. striking Iran by [end of day] today at 2% odds,” wrote Haeju Jeong, senior software engineer for META and Polymarket trader, in a social media post Monday on X.

“If it hits, the payout is $4M. The wallet was inactive for 460 days and has only participated in one other market ever. Very unusual behavior. Definitely a wallet to watch and see how this plays out”

Trump has increasingly threatened military action against Iran amid its crackdown on protesters, threats he walked back last month but that have continued to be discussed within his administration.

Both wagers on online prediction markets and cryptocurrency purchases have fueled speculation in the past about individuals using insider knowledge of the Trump administration for profit.

For instance, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt abruptly ended a press conference last month just seconds shy of it reaching 65 minutes, a move that unexpectedly earned a select-few prediction market traders who had bet on the 2% odds of the presser lasting under 65 minutes a small fortune.

Another eyebrowsing trade occurred last October when an anonymous trader opened an account and made a lofty bet on the cryptocurrency Bitcoin crashing just 30 minutes ahead of a major tariff announcement from President Donald Trump, a bet that paid off to the tune of $88 million.

“This is the weirdest thing I've seen on Polymarket lately,” said another predictions market trader, X user “Lirrato,” to their more than 4,000 followers in a social media post on X Monday. “I don't know how this ends, but I think I'm going to be watching this all day.”