Quantum Panic Over Bitcoin? CoinShares Says the Risk Is Real – but Far From a Crisis

• CoinShares argues that quantum computing poses a theoretical but distant challenge to Bitcoin, not an imminent threat to its security or markets.
• The firm says meaningful exposure is confined to a small subset of legacy addresses, with only a tiny portion capable of affecting liquidity.
• Aggressive fixes like burning coins are discouraged, with gradual upgrades favoured to preserve decentralisation and property rights.

Concerns about quantum computing undermining Bitcoin’s cryptographic security have intensified, but a new CoinShares report argues the issue is being overstated and misunderstood. The firm frames quantum risk as a long-term engineering challenge rather than an immediate systemic threat to Bitcoin’s network or market stability.

CoinShares explains that Bitcoin’s security relies on elliptic curve signatures for transaction authorisation and cryptographic hashing for address protection and mining integrity. While quantum algorithms could theoretically weaken these mechanisms, the report stresses that current technology falls dramatically short of what would be required for practical attacks.

According to CoinShares, genuine quantum exposure is largely limited to legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses where public keys are permanently visible on-chain. These addresses collectively hold around 1.6 million Bitcoin, representing roughly 8% of total supply, but only a small fraction poses any realistic market risk.
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Breaking Down the Risk

The report estimates that just 10,200 Bitcoin sit in legacy outputs large enough to cause “appreciable market disruption” if compromised suddenly. The remainder is distributed across tens of thousands of smaller outputs that would take extraordinarily long periods to exploit even under optimistic quantum assumptions.

CoinShares also challenges claims that as much as 25% of Bitcoin is vulnerable, arguing such figures often include temporary and easily mitigated risks like address reuse. Breaking Bitcoin’s core cryptography within meaningful timeframes would require quantum computers tens of thousands of times more powerful than those currently in existence.

The firm cautions against aggressive responses such as burning coins or rushing protocol changes, warning that such actions could undermine property rights, decentralisation and trust. Instead, CoinShares maintains Bitcoin has ample time and clear upgrade pathways to adapt gradually if quantum capabilities advance.

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