Opinion: If BTC fails to recover quickly after breaking below the 100-week SMA, it will likely fall 45%-58% to around the 200-week SMA within 30-50 days.

PANews reported on February 3rd that, according to Ali Charts analysis, the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) has historically been a key macro support level for Bitcoin. Since 2015, each time Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week SMA, it has typically failed to recover quickly and has instead dipped further to the 200-week SMA, usually accompanied by a deep retracement of 45%-58%, lasting approximately 30-50 days.

The past few cycles have shown the following performance:

• December 2014: After breaking below the 100-week moving average, Bitcoin fell by 55%, taking about 35 days to reach the 200-week moving average;
• November 2018: After the weekly closing price fell below the 100-week moving average, the price dropped by 45%, which was completed in about 28 days;
• March 2020 (Pandemic-induced plunge): Within just one week, it fell from the 100-week moving average to the 200-week moving average, a 47% pullback;
• May 2022: After falling below the 100-week moving average, Bitcoin dropped 58% over approximately 49 days.

As of last week, Bitcoin closed below its 100-week SMA again. If this historical pattern repeats itself, a pullback of approximately 50% is possible, with a downside target range of $56,000 to $50,000, potentially occurring between March and April.