Kevin O’Leary: Here’s when to expect crypto market legislation

Kevin O’Leary says U.S. crypto market structure legislation is finally on the brink, predicting it will pass before the midterm elections despite months of delays.

Summary

• The Shark Tank star gave CoinDesk his estimate of when the crypto bill will clear Congress.
• O’Leary, chairman of O’Leary Ventures, often praises the Trump administration’s embrace of digital assets.
• Technical analysis suggests that the Strategy stock will drop to $100.

Speaking to CoinDesk on Friday, the outspoken investor said he’s “hopeful” the bill could clear Congress by May 15, arguing that lawmakers’ staff are now consumed by the effort. “These bills are written by staffers,” the Shark Tank star said, adding they’re spending “probably 80% of their day” on the legislation.

O’Leary said the fight over stablecoin rewards remains the biggest holdup—responsible for about 90% of the uncertainty—but said he expects lawmakers to ultimately strike a compromise.

The investor also criticized a provision that could prohibit crypto platforms from paying rewards on idle stablecoin balances, arguing it would create an uneven competitive landscape. See below.

O’Leary, chairman of O’Leary Ventures and a longtime cryptocurrency advocate, often praises the Trump administration’s embrace of digital assets. Last year, he called it a “new phase” for the industry.

Since then, it’s been a bust.

After early optimism about a more crypto-friendly policy outlook in 2025, digital asset markets entered a sharp bear market that erased most of the year’s gains by late 2025 and into 2026.

Following a peak in October 2025, prices fell amid heightened volatility tied to global trade tensions, tariff threats, and broader macroeconomic pressures, with Bitcoin (BTC) frequently dropping below $90,000. It’s currently trading at around $87,600.

The downturn marked a reversal of the so-called “Trump trade.” Bitcoin retreated from record highs after proposed 100% tariffs on China in October 2025 triggered widespread liquidations. By November, roughly $1 trillion had been wiped from the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, leaving the market below levels seen at the start of the administration’s second term.

Volatility persists in 2026

Observers blame ongoing trade uncertainty, inflation concerns, and elevated interest rates for cryptocurrency volatility. Bitcoin has faced the risk of a fourth consecutive monthly decline in January, reflecting the market’s continued sensitivity to macroeconomic signals.

Policy developments have offered limited support. While the administration has taken steps toward establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve and issued early executive orders on digital assets, those moves have so far failed to offset broader risk-off sentiment.

O’Learly, for example, told CoinDesk that he sold 27 crypto positions.

Some analysts view moves like this as a necessary correction within a longer-term bull cycle, but near-term confidence remains fragile as traders await clearer signs of sustained recovery.

Until then, crypto legislation remains a point of contention.

Stablecoin Rewards

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has suggested a potential compromise under which rewards would be permitted for stablecoin usage but not for passive balances.

Coinbase withdrew its support for the legislation hours before lawmakers were scheduled to vote, prompting an indefinite postponement of the bill’s markup. CEO Brian Armstrong said the company supports a “level playing field” and has advocated for users’ ability to earn yields of around 3.8% on stablecoin holdings.

Other industry leaders remain supportive. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has described the bill as a “massive step forward” and has urged lawmakers and the industry to continue work on the legislation despite the delay.