Monero Price Analysis: Why XMR Could Rebound to $800 Soon

Highlights:

• Monero is trending towards a demand zone between $476.69 and $416.20
• Rebound off this support zone could see Monero rally to $801, or higher
• Rebound could be driven by a strong underlying demand for privacy 

Monero (XMR) is in heavy correction today and is one of the biggest losers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Monero was trading at $502.69, down by 17.50% in the day. However, even as the price drops, trading volumes have shot up intraday. 

When writing, Monero trading volumes stood at $331.18 million, an intraday increase of 15.29%. This surge in trading volumes when the price is dropping is an indicator that there are heavy sellers in the spot market. It also means that leveraged longs are being heavily liquidated even as shorts load up. There are a couple of factors that support the ongoing Monero selloff in the short term. 

Profit-Taking Pushing Monero Lower

One of them is profit-taking. For the better part of this year so far, most of the cryptocurrency market has been bearish. Bitcoin, the market leader, has been trading sideways and weighing heavily on the altcoin market. However, Monero has recently emerged as a standout performer. In a short time, it has gained more than 100%. This rally was triggered by a combination of favourable factors. The key among them is the rising demand for privacy in finance, and the unravelling of ZCash, one of the biggest Monero competitors. 

However, after such a parabolic price rally in a short time, a lot of investors, especially those who got in before the pump, have come into big profits. Naturally, this means a lot of profit-taking will follow, as not everyone invests in cryptocurrency with a long-term view. Given that the profit taking is happening at a time when there are a lot of uncertainties at the macro level, investors are likely dumping large amounts of XMR. The result is the ongoing price correction that has seen Monero drop by close to 20% in a matter of hours.

Risk-Off Sentiment Across Financial Markets Weighing Down On Monero

Monero is also being weighed on by the increased risk-off sentiment in the market at the moment. The EU and the US are in the early stages of what could be a defining trade war for 2026. The back and forth between two of the largest economic blocs in the world could trigger a shock selloff across all risk-on assets. That’s because it has the potential to affect global finance and put the world on course for a recession.

Monero is not immune to this because, like all other cryptocurrencies, it is a high beta risk-on asset. As such, investors could be liquidating while in profit, while new entrants could be holding back until there is some clarity on the geopolitical environment. The result is a surge in supply while demand weakens, a factor that could send Monero lower in the short term. 

Monero’s Core Fundamentals Remain Strong

That said, Monero’s core fundamentals remain strong and could help with the rebound going forward. Among the fundamentals supporting Monero is the fact that more people are valuing privacy in the digital space. The result is that people are turning to privacy coins like Monero, not only for speculation, but for everyday use for transactions. This could help give Monero a solid ground floor and offer the basis for a strong rebound once the price stabilises.

Technical Analysis – Monero Trending Towards Support Zone

After the sharp correction in the last 24 hours, Monero has come close to a major support zone between $476.69 and $416.20. If Monero bears push the price through this support zone, a correction to $284.72 could follow.

Source: TradingView

On the other hand, if there is a rebound off this support zone, a rally back to the $801 high could follow. Of these scenarios, a rebound to over $800 is more likely. That’s because the Monero selloff is driven by short-term factors, while the underlying demand for XMR remains strong. 

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