VanEck: Bitcoin may take 2.5% of central bank reserves, hit $2.9m by 2050

VanEck’s 2050 base case sees Bitcoin compounding 15% annually to ~$2.9m, settling up to 10% of global trade and reaching 2.5% of central bank reserves as a monetary hedge.

Summary

• VanEck analysts project Bitcoin could average 15% yearly returns for 25 years, lifting its price to about $2.9m per coin by 2050.​
• Their base case assumes Bitcoin handles 5–10% of global trade payments and grows into a non‑sovereign reserve asset at roughly 2.5% of central bank reserves.​
• The report frames Bitcoin as a long‑term hedge against monetary‑regime risks, with scenarios from a ~$130k bear case to a hyper‑bull outcome above $50m.

Global asset manager VanEck has issued a long-term forecast projecting Bitcoin could account for up to 10% of global trade and 2.5% of central bank reserves by 2050, according to a recent company report.

VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush stated in the report that Bitcoin could achieve these levels assuming an average annual return of 15% over the next 25 years. The analysts projected Bitcoin could represent between 5% and 10% of global trade payments and approximately 2.5% of central bank reserve assets within that timeframe.

The report characterized Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary system risks rather than a tactical asset, according to the analysts.

“Bitcoin is not a tactical asset; it functions as a long-term hedge against the negative consequences of a monetary regime,” the report stated.

Bitcoin has experienced volatility in recent trading periods, though long-term price forecasts from various analysts have remained positive. VanEck’s projections include multiple scenarios ranging from pessimistic to highly optimistic valuations.

The report suggests the cryptocurrency could strengthen its strategic role as a monetary hedge if adoption increases among central banks and international trade participants, according to the VanEck analysts.

VanEck, a global investment management firm, has been active in cryptocurrency investment products and market analysis. The firm’s 2050 projections represent one of several long-term Bitcoin valuations that have included seven-figure price targets from various market participants.