Supreme Court Could Kill Trump Tariffs Friday: What It Means for Your Shopping Bill

TLDR

• The 2026 US tariff book has grown to over 4,500 pages, up 100 pages from 2025 and 800 pages since 2017
• Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show only 25-27% odds that the Supreme Court will uphold Trump’s tariffs
• Retail stocks like Home Depot and Costco have risen 5-6% in 2026 on expectations tariffs will be struck down
• Businesses now must navigate 17 different tariff measures, up from just three in 2017
• Even if the Supreme Court rules against tariffs, the refund process and timeline remain unclear

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The US tariff system has become much more complex under the Trump administration. The official tariff book for 2026 now contains over 4,500 pages. This represents a 100-page increase from last year and an 800-page jump since 2017.

The Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States serves as the main reference guide for importers. It details what fees companies must pay to the government. The document lists thousands of individual items, from ignition coils to hydraulic backhoes, each with its own statistical reporting number and rate.

Scott Lincicome from the Cato Institute examined the complexity issue in detail. He found that companies must now account for 17 different tariff measures on major imports. In 2017, there were only three such measures.

Much of the added complexity appears in Chapter 99 of the tariff book. This section begins on page 3,320 and covers temporary modifications from trade legislation. These changes reflect executive actions taken by President Trump over the past year.

The Yale Budget Lab calculates that consumers now face an average tariff rate of 16.8%. Businesses argue that the complexity of tracking and paying these tariffs creates costs beyond the fees themselves. The economic impact of this administrative burden could be substantial.

Market Expectations

The Supreme Court may issue a ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariff powers as soon as Friday. Prediction markets suggest traders expect the court to rule against the administration. Kalshi shows 27% odds of the tariffs being upheld, while Polymarket indicates 25% odds.

Stock price movements reflect similar expectations. Home Depot shares have climbed 5% so far in 2026. Costco stock has gained 6% over the same period.

The State Street SPDR S&P Retail exchange-traded fund has risen nearly 6% since January 1. The S&P 500 has increased about 1% during this time. These gains suggest investors believe the tariffs will be struck down.

Consumer staples companies would also benefit from a ruling against tariffs. Higher tariffs have increased costs for aluminum and other supply chain inputs. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Mondelez face higher expenses under the current system.

Uncertainty Remains

Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research points out that many questions remain unanswered. Even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump, the justices may not specify how refunds would work. The ruling might not clarify which companies qualify for refunds or when they would receive them.

Louis Navellier from Navellier & Associates notes that a decision against the White House may not end tariffs. The Trump administration believes it has other legal options to keep tariffs in place. This could create ongoing uncertainty for businesses.

The prediction market volume on this topic totals about $2.3 million at Kalshi and $2 million at Polymarket. By comparison, trades on Trump’s next Federal Reserve chair pick total about $150 million at Polymarket.

A Supreme Court decision upholding the tariffs would likely cause consumer stocks to drop. Retail and consumer companies have already priced in expectations of a ruling against the administration. The ports where tariffs are calculated also face increased workloads from the complex system.

Current tariff policies require detailed tracking of numerous product categories. Companies must match each imported item to specific codes and rates. This process has become more difficult as the number of tariff measures has expanded.

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