OSL Trading Moments: The market predicts that BTC may fall to $77,000 before returning to a bull market, and altcoins are expected to rebound

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETF, ETH, BTC

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to attract attention. The CEO of CryptoQuant predicts that the price of Bitcoin will fall to $77,000 before a possible bull run resumes. However, the recent Bybit breach where stolen assets were converted into Bitcoin by cybercriminals has raised concerns about the relationship between cybercrime and cryptocurrencies.

In contrast, Strategy's Michael Saylor presented a more optimistic view at CPAC 2025, emphasizing Bitcoin's transformative potential in corporate finance and personal economic independence. Against this backdrop, Ethereum (ETH) also showed bullish signs, especially after Bybit conducted a large ETH buyback.

Meanwhile, business intelligence firm Strategy updated its profile picture, sparking speculation that it may be about to buy Bitcoin. Earlier, Michael Saylor hinted that Strategy's 21/21 plan is making progress, aiming to further accumulate Bitcoin. Although the price of Bitcoin remains fixed below $100,000, some altcoins are also showing growth potential.

Despite selling pressure on Bitcoin, which saw prices fall 3% and stabilize above $95,500, key indicators suggest a rebound is possible. However, the sharp drop in prices after the Bybit hack suggests that holders may have chosen to give up in the short term. Ethereum also experienced turbulence with the death cross, but some analysts remain optimistic about its continued long-term rise.

In addition, Bitcoin's role in the U.S. economy has also become a focus of discussion. VanEck said that by 2049, strategic Bitcoin reserves have the potential to eliminate $21 trillion in debt. This view resonates with the expectation that Bitcoin is ready to break through its latest all-time high of $108,824. However, as gold prices approach $3,000, Bitcoin seems to lag in performance, which has raised market concerns about the world's largest cryptocurrency.

2. Key data (as of 10:10 HKT on February 24)

• S&P 500: 6,013.13 (+2.24% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,524.01 (+1.10% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.430% (-14.60 basis points year-to-date)

• US dollar index: 106.20 (-2.10% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $96,178 (+2.96% YTD), with daily spot volume of $18.45 billion

• Ethereum: $2,794.17 (-16.46% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $22.35 billion

3. ETF flows (February 21 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$62.9 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$8.9 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Second estimate of GDP quarterly growth rate (21:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 3.1% / Expected: 2.3%

Core PCE price index month-on-month (21:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 0.2% / Expected: 0.3%

Personal consumption expenditure month-on-month (09:30, February 28)

• Actual: None / Previous: 0.7% / Expected: 0.2%

5. Hot News

This week's preview | Arkham Exchange provides spot trading to 17 states in the United States; VitaDAO plans to launch a new token on Pump Science

Macroeconomic Outlook of the Week: What will the next move of the Fed, which is cautious as the main theme? Focus on PCE

SUI, OP, ZETA and other tokens will usher in large amounts of unlocking, of which SUI unlocking value is about 77.6 million US dollars

Bybit CEO: ETH gap has been fully filled

Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $559 million last week, with only VanEck Bitcoin ETF HODL achieving weekly net inflows

Georgia proposes second Bitcoin reserve bill

Bybit has acquired approximately 446,870 ETH worth approximately $1.23 billion through loans, whale deposits, and purchases

Pump.fun is suspected of internally testing the AMM liquidity pool and adding a new Swap section

A multi-signature wallet associated with Mantle bought 200 million WLFI 6 hours ago

Arkham Exchange will offer spot trading to users in 17 U.S. states starting March 1

Buffett's shareholder letter: Will always invest most of the funds in stocks, and the value of tradable stocks held last year fell to $272 billion

Bybit hacker surpasses Fidelity and Vitalik to become the world's 14th largest ETH holder

Franklin Templeton Submits Solana Spot ETF S-1 Filing to US SEC

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