Bitcoin Bear Market Far From Over? Analysts Warn of Traps And Bounces

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to move past its October weakness, even after being one of the best-performing assets during the first nine months of 2025. The cryptocurrency briefly climbed above $90,000 on Monday as traders bet on a New Year rebound. However, the uptick did not last long, as BTC fell back to around $87,000.

Analysts are warning investors that such short-term gains could be liquidity traps, followed by renewed selling pressure.

Short-Term Bounce, Long-Term Pain

Bitcoin is currently over 30% down from its all-time high of $126,000 in October. Crypto analyst Mr Wall Street described the asset as being in a bear market, and said that market makers are likely to continue pushing prices lower over the medium term. However, he noted that in the short term, there could be a relief bounce designed to create liquidity before another move down.

According to his view, such a bounce could then be followed by a decline toward the $64,000-$70,000 range, which he identified as the next downside target.

Additionally, Doctor Profit echoed a similar broader sentiment. In the latest tweet, the analyst explained that Bitcoin remains in a strong bear market and that a market bottom has not yet been reached. In a previous post, he warned BTC traders against expecting to “buy the crash” in the coming weeks since the downtrend could extend much longer.

He believes Bitcoin may not bottom out until September or October 2026. Based on that outlook, Doctor Profit said he sees little benefit in holding USDT, and instead prefers to keep capital working through large allocations to silver and gold. He even went on to disclose a major Bitcoin short entered between $115,000 and $125,000.

Despite his long-term bearish stance, Doctor Profit added that he holds a medium-sized BTC position in the short term, expecting a sideways phase and a potential move up toward $107,000 before another leg lower, possibly in February or March.

Bear Market Structure

Several on-chain metrics also point to a bear market structure forming. Long-term holders, for instance, are no longer consistently taking profits, as evidenced by LTH SOPR hovering around 1.0. This level is historically below strong bull markets.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Cycle Market Index (BCMI) has declined along with the price rather than stabilizing, which means that further downside or extended consolidation may be ahead. This indicates the market is transitioning into a bear phase, which is defined more by time and distribution than by quick price moves.

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