The S&P 500 turned back into a bullish mode at the end of November and moved very close to the previous all time highs, but notice that the market still failed to make a clean breakout. Instead, what we are seeing now is a deeper retracement, which still looks like a counter-trend move, possibly even a subwave two of five. There is very solid support around the 61.8% retracement near 6740, followed by the 78.6% level around 6720. For now this still looks like a corrective pullback that could set the stage for higher prices, but the key confirmation for continuation would be a push above the 6883 level. If that happens, then the market can start targeting new highs in a higher-degree blue wave five.
Big picture
SP500 is unfolding an extended bullish impulse within wave III, which can come to an end later in 2025.
Tuesday’s U.S. jobs report—the first full nonfarm payrolls release since September—adds further nuance. Ongoing data disruptions caused by earlier government shutdown delays mean labor market releases have been atypical and noisy. Nevertheless, early expectations for November point to modest job creation, well below long-term averages, illustrating a slowing labor market that remains soft but not recessionary.
This softer jobs backdrop may temper expectations for further aggressive Fed tightening, and if the actual NFP print confirms a slow yet positive labor market, equity markets often interpret that as supportive for risk assets—bolstering the case for a continuation of the uptrend in the S&P 500.
In summary, the trend remains bullish, with key technical levels holding and sentiment supported by moderate macro signals. Traders should watch 6700–6500 as critical support before a potential breakout to fresh highs into early 2026.
We also updated some other single stocks in the yesterday’s (December 17) free video analysis:
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Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-bulls-are-still-here-but-more-upside-after-the-current-corrective-pullback-video-202512191150
