Daily Market Update: Bitcoin Tests Key Support Level While Stock Futures Rebound From Tech Sell-Off

TLDR

• Bitcoin trades near $86,400 with the $81,300 True Market Mean level acting as a critical support point for the broader crypto market
• Large-cap cryptocurrencies remain tightly correlated with Bitcoin over the past 90 days, making the $81,300 level important for the entire market
• Ethereum dropped 3.6% in 24 hours to $2,830 and fell 15% over the week, underperforming Bitcoin
• US stock futures rose overnight with S&P 500 up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 up 0.4% after tech sector losses
• Micron Technology forecast next quarter’s adjusted profit to be nearly double analyst expectations, boosting tech sentiment

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Bitcoin continued its recent decline on Wednesday, trading near $86,400 as investors watch a critical price level that could determine the direction of the entire crypto market. The largest cryptocurrency dropped 1% on the day and fell roughly 6.5% over the past week.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Market analysts at Glassnode identified Bitcoin’s True Market Mean at $81,300 as a key support level. This price point separates normal pullbacks from more aggressive selling pressure across the market.

The $81,300 level has gained importance since October’s flash crash. Glassnode data shows that when Bitcoin trades below this level for extended periods, selling pressure has historically spread more broadly across the crypto market.

Large-cap cryptocurrencies have remained tightly correlated with Bitcoin over the last 90 days. This correlation means a sustained break below the True Market Mean could trigger wider market losses.

Ethereum Underperforms as Crypto Market Weakens

Ethereum traded around $2,830 on Wednesday, dropping 3.6% over 24 hours. The second-largest cryptocurrency fell roughly 15% over the past week, underperforming Bitcoin as the broader market weakened.

With large-cap assets still moving closely with Bitcoin, a move below $81,300 would risk pulling weakness back into the market’s core. High-beta tokens have already sold off during the recent decline.

Stock Futures Rise After Tech Sector Losses

US stock futures ticked higher overnight as investors looked to recover from Wednesday’s tech-fueled sell-off. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4%.

E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 25 (ES=F)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up slightly. Wall Street experienced another bruising session for tech stocks on Wednesday after Oracle lost key backing for a $10 billion data center project.

Oracle’s stock tumbled along with heavyweight names like Nvidia and Broadcom. The losses raised concerns about the AI trade across the tech sector.

Chipmaker Micron Technology provided positive news late Wednesday with stronger-than-expected earnings. The Nvidia supplier forecast next quarter’s adjusted profit to be nearly double what analysts expected.

Inflation Data and Fed Policy in Focus

Markets are waiting for Thursday’s report on the consumer price index for November. The inflation data was originally scheduled for December 10 but was delayed.

The CPI report could be less reliable than normal due to the US government shutdown. Month-on-month comparisons will be missing given the disruption to data collection in October.

This will make it more difficult to gauge inflation momentum. The Federal Reserve appears more focused on the labor market than price pressures currently.

Fed governor Chris Waller signaled support for rate cuts on Wednesday before the release of the CPI update. Markets are seen as less focused on the inflation print than usual given these factors.

Markets will also get the latest weekly look at initial unemployment claims on Thursday. The jobs data has been subject to volatility following the federal shutdown.

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