Stellar Lumen price prediction: XLM retests the June low, eyes further dip

Key takeaways

• Stellar’s XLM is down 3.4% and is now trading around $0.22.
• Derivatives data signals a bearish positional buildup, with further downside expected in the near term.

XLM derivatives suggest further bearish price action

Stellar (XLM) is trading in the red zone for the seventh consecutive day, losing 3.4% of its value in the last 24 hours. The bearish performance comes as the broader cryptocurrency market is bleeding, with XLM now expected to retest the April low in the near term. 

XLM’s derivatives data shows that the bearish trend could grow thicker. Data obtained from CoinGlass shows that XLM futures Open Interest (OI) is in a largely declining trend, at $118.43 million, down from $124.72 million recorded yesterday. 

The declining OI suggests a decline in the notional value of XLM futures, with the total value of all active positions (long and short) currently on the decline. 

With XLM declining,  long liquidations over the last 24 hours totaled $406,740, outpacing short liquidations of $6,040. The long-to-short ratio chart shows that short positions increased to 53.37% today, up from 50.57% recorded on Monday. 

XLM could decline below the $0.20 psychological level

The XLM/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient as Stellar has underperformed over the last seven days. The coin is currently trading at $0.222, retesting the June low of $0.217.

If the bearish trend continues, XLM could drop below the $0.2001 level marked by the April 7 low. An extended bearish trend could see the cross-border remittance token aim for the support at $0.1642, followed by the annual low of $0.1600. 

Currently, the technical indicators are bearish, suggesting that sellers are in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35, pointing toward the oversold zone. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is falling steeply after crossing below the signal line a few hours ago.

However, if the bulls regain control, XLM could flip the bearish narrative and retest the $0.2579 support-turned-resistance.

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