Gemini Rockets Into U.S. Prediction Markets With CFTC Approval

• Gemini receives CFTC approval to launch prediction markets in the U.S.
• The move positions Gemini to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Expansion plans include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts.

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange co-founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has officially entered the U.S. prediction markets sector. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license to Gemini Titan, an affiliate of Gemini Space Station, Inc., authorizing the exchange to offer event contracts to American investors.

“This approval concludes a five-year licensing process and marks the beginning of an exciting chapter for Gemini,” CEO Tyler Winklevoss said in a statement, highlighting regulatory support under prior administrations as pivotal in achieving the milestone. With the license in hand, Gemini can now list a variety of event contracts, including forecasts on cryptocurrency performance and anticipated regulatory developments.

Gemini Enters Prediction Market Arena

Gemini’s foray into prediction markets places it in direct competition with established platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket, which returned to U.S. operations last month after temporarily moving offshore in 2022, exemplifies the growing regulatory openness toward prediction-based financial products.

According to the company’s announcement, users will be able to trade event contracts directly through Gemini’s web platform using existing U.S. dollar balances, with mobile trading functionality to follow. Sample market questions may include whether Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 by year-end or the likelihood of specific regulatory outcomes.

Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s president, underscored the potential of prediction markets, stating, “They could rival or exceed traditional capital markets in scale and influence.” Industry analysts note that interest in these markets has surged, particularly within the crypto segment, reflecting broader acceptance by retail and institutional participants alike.

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Gemini Expands Beyond Event Contracts

Beyond event contracts, Gemini has signaled plans to broaden its offerings into crypto derivatives, including futures, options, and perpetual contracts. These instruments have achieved significant adoption in Asian markets but remain largely inaccessible to U.S.-based traders.

The CFTC, under Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, has demonstrated a more permissive approach toward these markets compared with previous administrations. Pham also announced the formation of the CEO Innovation Council, which features executives from Gemini, Polymarket, Kalshi, Nasdaq, and CME Group, reflecting a concerted effort to align regulatory policy with innovation in digital finance.

The announcement generated immediate market reactions: Gemini’s stock surged approximately 13.7% in after-hours trading, although it remains 70% below its IPO price. With regulatory barriers easing, Gemini appears poised to reshape U.S. prediction markets while laying the groundwork for future growth in derivatives trading.

Also Read | Gemini Expands in Europe With Launch of XRP Perpetual Contracts