The odds are firmly pointing to a rate cut: markets are pricing in an 87.2% chance of a drop to 3.50%-3.75%, with just 12.8% expecting no change.
Source: CME FedWatch
But if the last two cuts were any guide, traders should stay cautious. Ahead of the September and October decisions, BTC saw small pre-FOMC rallies, a brief post-announcement bounce, and then a slide.
The setup this time looks similar.
Source: CryptoQuant
Exchange reserves have fallen from around 2.95M BTC in August to nearly 2.76M BTC now, so there’s weaker spot demand.
Source: Cryptoquant
Funding rates have also flipped negative at times, with shaky leverage. With major U.S. data packed through Thursday, volatility may hit before the Fed even speaks.
And that’s where the recent macro print became important. As Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto,
Here’s more…
Global central bank liquidity has barely moved since 2022, stuck between $28 trillion and $30 trillion. This is the same range that previously kept Bitcoin in slow, sideways accumulation phases rather than breakout rallies.
Source: Alphractal
Even the yearly change in liquidity has something we already know: when it turns negative, those periods have been some of the best long-term accumulation zones for BTC.
Source: Alphractal
But the most surprising development sits outside the U.S. entirely.
Source: Alphractal
Among major central banks, the Reserve Bank of India now shows the strongest correlation with Bitcoin’s price. BTC is reacting to global liquidity shifts, not just the Fed.
This meets with the flow of sidelined capital. As Mena noted,
And this is where everything ties together
The Hash Ribbon has now flipped bearish. This appears when miner revenue drops and weaker operators start shutting down rigs.
At the same time, Short-Term Holder NUPL has slipped into negative territory too, making capitulation clear among recent buyers.
Source: X
In the latest chart, STH-NUPL fell from around +0.05 in September to roughly -0.15 in November. This is one of its sharpest drops since 2022.
This combination of miner stress and short-term panic tends to cluster around major Bitcoin bottoms, even if price volatility continues in the short run.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin enters FOMC week with miner stress, weak liquidity, and a rare new correlation.
- A clean reclaim of key levels may depend on how markets digest easing expectations and whether sidelined capital finally rotates in.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-wobbles-into-fomc-week-with-major-warnings-details/
