Interesting observations have come from the relationship between the short-term holder (STH) and long-term holder (LTH) realized prices. This is a pattern that has repeated across every major cycle.
The bear market tends to end when the STH realized price falls below the LTH line, which means full capitulation and a move into true accumulation.
The bull market begins when STH climbs back above it, showing capital returning with confidence.
Source: Alphractal
Through the years, this crossover has consistently marked the turning point. And right now, Bitcoin is approaching that zone again. The market may be closer to renewal than it looks.
A quiet market isn’t weak though
Google searches for crypto have fallen to multi-year lows, and even interest in major platforms like CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko has cooled.
This kind of social silence has so far meant bear phases. However, it’s also when the best opportunities tend to form, long before the crowd returns.
Source: Alphractal
Despite the drop in attention, the market underneath looks stronger, not weaker. Bitcoin has absorbed roughly $732 billion in new capital this cycle, while its one-year realized volatility has nearly halved.
Source: Glassnode
In other words, the market is now steadier, supported by institutional hands rather than retail.
Sentiment is turning
As prices recover (Bitcoin back near $93K and Ethereum [ETH] above $3K at the time of writing), social sentiment has swung sharply again.
Santiment data shows the crowd flipping between fear and greed in real time: blue spikes signal fear (often just before prices rise), while red spikes reflect greed (typically before markets cool off).
Source: Santiment
The latest bounce has pushed sentiment back toward greed, so traders may be getting ahead of themselves.
But everything put together, it looks more like the first signs of a thaw. Crypto winter isn’t over yet… but the ice is starting to break.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s next major cycle signal is closing in, and the bear market’s final phase may already be underway.
- Volatility is dropping and $732B in new capital has been absorbed.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/is-crypto-winter-over-as-bitcoin-rebounds-from-below-90k/
