Kevin O’Leary Predicts No Fed Rate Cut in December, Says Bitcoin Will Hold Steady

TLDR

• Kevin O’Leary does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December despite market odds at 89.2%
• O’Leary believes a Fed rate hold will not hurt Bitcoin, predicting BTC will stay within 5% of current levels around $91,440
• Market expectations for December rate cuts jumped from 33% to 89.2% in recent weeks following dovish Fed comments
• O’Leary says altcoins are not recovering after corrections because investors focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum which capture 97.5% of market alpha
• CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index shows 23, indicating a “Bitcoin Season” rather than an altcoin rally period

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O’Leary pointed to inflation concerns as a key reason. The annual inflation rate rose to 3% in September, marking the highest level since January.

Market participants currently assign 89.2% odds to a December rate cut according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. This represents a dramatic shift from just weeks earlier when odds stood at only 33% on November 19.

The odds nearly doubled to 69.4% by November 21 after New York Fed president John Williams made dovish remarks. Williams stated the Fed could cut rates “in the near term” without endangering inflation goals.

Bitcoin Price Outlook Remains Stable

O’Leary does not believe a potential Fed rate hold will hurt Bitcoin prices. He predicts Bitcoin will drift within 5% of its current trading level in either direction.

The cryptocurrency has declined 17.35% over the past 30 days. Despite this drop, O’Leary believes Bitcoin has found a stable level for now.

Crypto traders typically view Fed rate cuts as positive for digital assets. Lower rates make bonds and term deposits less attractive, pushing investors toward riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

The Federal Reserve cut rates in September 2025 and again in November. Markets had broadly expected the central bank to continue easing policy through year end.

O’Leary emphasized he is not making investment decisions based on Fed rate cut expectations. He sees multiple reasons why the central bank might hold rates steady.

Altcoins Lag Behind Bitcoin and Ethereum

O’Leary made separate comments about altcoin performance in the current market. He stated altcoins are no longer bouncing back after market corrections.

The investor said on social media that Bitcoin and Ethereum capture 97.5% of the cryptocurrency market’s returns. He argued that owning these two assets is sufficient for most crypto investors.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index registered 23 at the time of his comments. This indicates a “Bitcoin Season” where Bitcoin outperforms most alternative cryptocurrencies.

Altcoin Season occurs when 75% of the top 100 coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. Current data shows the total market share of altcoins rose from 28.2% to 29.5% recently.

Bitcoin’s market dominance fell from 59.2% to 58.9% during the same period. Ethereum’s market share decreased from 12.6% to 11.5%.

O’Leary has consistently advised investors to focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. In September, he recommended avoiding what he called “irrelevant tokens” in favor of the two largest cryptocurrencies.

The investor also noted changing investment patterns among younger generations. He observed in August that Gen Z investors are buying Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside traditional stocks.

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