NG debt rises to P17.56T at end-Oct.

THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT’S (NG) outstanding debt inched up to P17.562 trillion at the end of October due to a weaker peso.

Data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed outstanding debt rose by 0.61% to P17.562 trillion in October from P17.46 trillion at end-September. 

This was 1.2% higher than the P17.36-trillion projected debt level by end-2025.

Year on year, NG debt jumped by 9.62% from P16.02 trillion as of October 2024, the BTr said.

The end-October level was also a tad lower than the record-high P17.563 trillion in outstanding debt seen as of July. 

“The expansion was driven by net issuances of domestic and external liabilities, as well as due to the upward revaluation effects of the weaker peso against the US dollar,” the BTr said.

The peso depreciated to P58.771 per dollar at the end of October from P58.149 at end- September, it said.

NG debt is the total amount owed by the Philippine government to creditors such as international financial institutions, development partner-countries, banks, global bondholders and other investors.

In October, the bulk or 68.6% of the debt stock came from domestic sources, while external obligations made up the rest, consistent with the government’s strategy to prioritize local currency financing to reduce foreign exchange risks and help develop the bond market.

Domestic debt went up by 0.6% month on month to P12.05 trillion at end-October from P11.97 trillion at end-September. This was slightly above the P12.04-trillion year-end domestic debt projection.

The net issuance of government securities added P70.65 billion to the outstanding debt, and the peso’s depreciation also increased the valuation of its retail dollar bonds by P1.78 billion.

Year on year, this was 10.61% higher than the P10.89 trillion recorded as of October 2024.

Meanwhile, external liabilities rose by 0.63% to P5.52 trillion at end-October from P5.48 trillion at end-September. This exceeded the P5.32-trillion end-2025 external debt projection by 3.8%.

The month-on-month increase came “behind the net availment of loans of P8.25 billion and upward net adjustments in the peso equivalent of foreign currency debt of P26.1 billion,” the BTr said.

“Peso depreciation against the US dollar added P58.64 billion to the debt total, while peso appreciation against third currencies provided an offset of P32.54 billion.”

The outstanding foreign debt was composed of P2.82 trillion in global bond issuances and P2.7 trillion in loans. External debt securities were made up of P2.39 trillion in US dollar bonds, P257.61 billion in euro bonds, P58.77 billion in Islamic certificates, P57.83 billion in Japanese yen bonds, and P54.77 billion in peso global bonds.

Year on year, foreign debt climbed by 7.53% from P5.13 trillion.

NG-guaranteed liabilities dipped by 0.64% month on month to P344.41 billion at end-October due to net repayments of P1.25 billion and lower valuation of foreign currency guarantees of P0.97 billion.

“The Bureau reaffirmed its commitment to prudent debt and risk management, ensuring that borrowings remain aligned with the government’s long-term fiscal sustainability goals and supportive of a thriving and stable macroeconomic environment toward a prosperous and more inclusive future for Filipinos,” the Treasury said.

NG debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) went up to 63.1% at end-September from 60.1% in the same period last year. This is above the 60% threshold deemed sustainable for developing countries.

The Department of Finance expects the NG debt-to-GDP ratio to ease to 61.3% by end-2025 and eventually fall to 58% by 2030. — with inputs from A.R.A.Inosante