Trading Moment: Bitcoin's rebound faces a test of the $93,000-$96,000 dense supply zone.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On November 27th, the US market was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US stock index futures remained flat, while crude oil rebounded due to OPEC+'s continued suspension of production increases. However, the outlook for Russia-Ukraine peace talks triggered a flash crash during the session. Spot gold was boosted by expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, briefly breaking through $4190. Analysts from Wells Fargo Investment Institute and other institutions believe that a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar, and changes in the investment logic of popular sectors such as AI may create favorable conditions for alternative assets like gold. Looking ahead, despite market concerns about an economic slowdown, expectations of a policy shift also present potential opportunities for risk assets. Global investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's next move and the potential reshaping of the market landscape that may result.

As November draws to a close, Bitcoin prices have risen to nearly $92,000 after experiencing volatility. Several analysts point out that this rebound is primarily driven by short covering rather than strong spot buying support. For example, KillaXBT has already initiated short positions at $91,400, planning to add to the position at $93,100, with a stop-loss set at $95,000. He warns that if the closing price fails to break $108,000 within the next four weeks, a bear market will be confirmed, with a potential target price of $60,000. Furthermore, Glassnode data shows that the Bitcoin market structure remains fragile, with the short-term holder cost line (around $104,600) acting as a key resistance level, and dense supply zones existing in the $93,000-$96,000 and $100,000-$108,000 ranges. If liquidity fails to improve, Bitcoin prices could further decline to around the "real market average" of $81,000. The key support level needs to hold above the $84,000 cost cluster, which represents approximately 400,000 BTC. Analyst Ali considers $84,570 a key support level and $112,340 an upper limit, while also warning that a bear market could see a 70% drop.

Despite the headwinds, bullish views persist. Veteran trader Alessio Rastani believes historical data shows a 75% probability of a short-term upward move in the current pattern. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe and Daan Crypto Trades are focusing on the $97,000-$98,000 liquidity cluster, suggesting a potential move towards $100,000 if the price breaks through resistance near $93,000. Man of Bitcoin also points out that a hold above $91,521 could lead to a test of $96,897. Overall, the market awaits clearer signals, needing to see sustained spot demand and increased buying power to confirm a structural recovery in the trend.

Regarding Ethereum, although the price has rebounded 15% from a low of $2,623, briefly reaching $3,000, on-chain and derivatives data indicate that bullish sentiment among large investors has not fully recovered, making it more difficult for the price to break through $4,000. Currently, Ethereum's network TVL has declined from nearly $100 billion to $72.3 billion, network fees have decreased by 13% in the past week, and the long/short ratio of top OKX traders also shows a bearish bias. Analysts have differing opinions: Scient believes ETH has a stronger structure than Bitcoin and, if it can hold the $2,800 support level, it could potentially reach $3,390; while Ken, an analyst at Lab Trading, warns that unless it can effectively hold above $3,000, it could potentially fall to $2,600. Meanwhile, Kingpin Crypto anticipates an "Ethereum Santa Claus rally" in December, targeting the $3,300 range. Daan Crypto Trades suggests investors pay attention to the $2,600 to $3,000 range. A break above $3,000 could lead to a move towards $3,300 to $3,400, while a drop below $2,600 could see a move towards the $2,000 low. In addition, Simon Kim, founder of venture capital firm Hashed, recently launched a real-time Ethereum valuation dashboard. This tool estimates Ethereum's fair value at $4,747.4, undervalued by approximately 56.9% from the current price of $3,022.3.

In market news, the hacking attack on South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit on November 27th has become a recent focus. The attack resulted in the theft of approximately 54 billion won (about US$36.81 million) worth of Solana network-related assets, including various tokens such as SOL, JUP, PYTH, and RENDER. South Korean authorities strongly suspect the attack was carried out by the North Korean hacking group Lazarus Group, which is also linked to Upbit's Ethereum theft six years ago. Following the incident, the prices of some affected low-market-cap Solana ecosystem tokens on the Upbit platform surged; for example, ORCA and MET2 rose by nearly 100%. Upbit has currently suspended all deposit and withdrawal services, transferred assets to cold wallets, and promised to fully compensate users for their losses.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on November 26)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $91,318 (down 2.43% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $51.63 billion.

• Ethereum: $3,010 (-9.82% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $14.54 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 25 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 11.5%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ORCA, XRP, BTC, MET2, TRUST

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.37% / 50.63%

• Sector Performance: The Meme sector fell 2.78%, and the L1 sector fell 1.87%.

• 24-hour liquidation data : A total of 76,060 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $123 million. This included $23.42 million in BTC liquidations, $20.13 million in ZEC liquidations, and $15.09 million in ETH liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 27)

• Bitcoin ETF: Thanksgiving Holiday

• Ethereum ETF: Thanksgiving Holiday

• Solana ETF: Thanksgiving Holiday

4. Today's Outlook

• The ChinaAMC Hong Kong Dollar Digital Currency Fund will be listed and traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 28.

• Binance will remove spot trading for BMT/FDUSD, GMT/BTC, ME/BTC, and TOWNS/FDUSD on November 28.

• Binance will delist Ponke, Swell, and Quick U-margined perpetual contracts.

• ETH Strategy will launch a 2-month STRAT linear unlocking program on November 29th, and will soon introduce lending products.

• Binance Alpha will launch on GaiAi (GAIX) on November 29th.

• Hyperliquid will unlock $308 million of HYPE on November 29th, representing 2.66% of the circulating supply.

• Sentient airdrop registration is now open, and eligibility confirmation closes at midnight on November 30th.

• Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens at 12:00 PM Beijing time on November 28th, representing 0.76% of the total supply, worth approximately $12.5 million.

• Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock approximately 133 million tokens on November 27th at 8:00 AM, representing 1.33% of the total supply and worth approximately $10.4 million.

The biggest drops among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: MemeCore down 21.4%, Kaspa down 8.5%, Dash down 7.9%, SPX6900 down 7.5%, and Zcash down 7.3%.

5. Hot News

• Animoca executives: Plans to expand business focus to stablecoins, AI, and DePIN by 2026.

• MegaETH: Will refund all funds raised through the pre-deposited bridge; new smart contracts are being audited.

• Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin whales have flowed $7.5 billion into Binance, the highest level in a year.

• The Wormhole Foundation announced the purchase of $5 million worth of W tokens.

• Infinex will launch its token presale on Sonar, distributing 5% of its INX tokens before January TGE to raise $15 million.

• Tom Lee appears to have abandoned his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year.

• SpaceX has transferred 1,163 BTC to a new address, worth approximately $105 million.

• BlackRock's SIO fund's IBIT holdings have increased to 2.39 million units, a quarterly increase of approximately 14%.